FIDELITY SMALL Mutual Fund Forward View

FCTGX Fund

USD 35.40 0.24 0.68%

FIDELITY SMALL's Naive Prediction forecast is computed from observed closing prices over the selected horizon. The accuracy statistics below distinguish a well-fitted model from one that is smoothing over meaningful price movement. The Naive Prediction model projects FIDELITY SMALL at 35.56 for the next trading day, above the most recent closing price. The Naive Prediction output reflects statistical model results and is provided for reference purposes.

A naive forecasting model for FIDELITY SMALL is a special case of the moving average where the smoothing period is one. The forecast for Fidelity Small Cap on a given trading day is simply the observed closing price of the previous period. Because it uses only a single lag, this model is limited to one-period-ahead forecasts.

Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 13th of May 2026

Over a 90-day horizon, the Naive Prediction model forecasts FIDELITY SMALL at 35.56 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and sum of absolute errors of 24.22 .

This represents a very tight forecast — the model closely tracks FIDELITY SMALL's recent price behavior. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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FIDELITY SMALL Price Prediction

Research Analysis

Forecasted Value

The next-day forecast range for FIDELITY SMALL defines statistically derived downside and upside boundaries based on model performance. The forecast band spans 33.93 to 37.18. The moderate spread reflects defined uncertainty around the forecast.

Market Value

35.40

33.93

Downside

35.56

Expected Value

37.18

Upside

Target Odds

Above Odds

Below Odds

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the Naive Prediction model's error metrics for FIDELITY SMALL mutual fund. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.

AIC	Akaike Information Criteria	118.5495
Bias	Arithmetic mean of the errors	None
MAD	Mean absolute deviation	0.3906
MAPE	Mean absolute percentage error	0.0125
SAE	Sum of the absolute errors	24.2168

The naive model produces a tight forecast range but offers no smoothing of noise or trend detection. It serves primarily as a baseline benchmark — if a more complex model cannot outperform the naive forecast, it may indicate that FIDELITY SMALL price movements are largely random over the selected horizon.

Other Forecasting Options for FIDELITY SMALL

Analyzing FIDELITY SMALL's price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in FIDELITY SMALL's chart signal overbought or oversold conditions.

FIDELITY SMALL Comparable Funds

Investors studying FIDELITY SMALL often review similar funds to compare yield, discount behavior, and risk. Funds are typically compared on holdings mix, category returns, risk measures, and implementation cost rather than on operating-company margins.

Fidelity Small Cap Fidelity Small Cap Fidelity Advisor Technology Capital Group Core Fidelity Advisor Technology ProShares Ultra SAMPP500 iShares Expanded Tech JP Morgan Exchange Traded Fidelity Advisor Technology Fidelity Asset Manager American Airlines Group Alcoa Corp Apple Inc Best Buy Co Citigroup

Risk & Return

Correlation

FIDELITY SMALL Market Strength Events

For investors tracking Fidelity Small Cap, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of mutual fund behavior. When Rate of Change diverges from price direction, it often signals weakening momentum before a visible reversal in FIDELITY SMALL.

	Rate Of Daily Change	1.01
	Day Median Price	35.4
	Day Typical Price	35.4
	Price Action Indicator	0.12
	Period Momentum Indicator	0.24
	Relative Strength Index	65.87

FIDELITY SMALL Risk Indicators

Analyzing FIDELITY SMALL's basic risk indicators provides a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for fidelity small mutual fund. Expected shortfall estimates the average loss in the worst-case tail scenarios, going beyond what standard deviation alone captures for FIDELITY SMALL.

	Mean Deviation	1.24
	Semi Deviation	1.5
	Standard Deviation	1.65
	Variance	2.73
	Downside Variance	2.91
	Semi Variance	2.24
	Expected Short fall	-1.26

Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

	Naive Prediction
	Simple Exponential Smoothing
	Double Exponential Smoothing
	Triple Exponential Smoothing
	Simple Regression
	Polynomial Regression
	Simple Moving Average
	4 Period Moving Average
	8 Period Moving Average
	20 Period Moving Average