ALERION CLEANPOWER Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| FCW3 Stock | EUR 18.40 0.08 0.43% |
ALERION Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of ALERION CLEANPOWER's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 18th of February 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of ALERION CLEANPOWER's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.70) | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.15) |
Using ALERION CLEANPOWER hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ALERION CLEANPOWER from the perspective of ALERION CLEANPOWER response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ALERION CLEANPOWER on the next trading day is expected to be 18.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.07. ALERION CLEANPOWER after-hype prediction price | EUR 18.39 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
ALERION |
ALERION CLEANPOWER Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine ALERION price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ALERION using various technical indicators. When you analyze ALERION charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
ALERION CLEANPOWER Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ALERION CLEANPOWER on the next trading day is expected to be 18.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31, mean absolute percentage error of 0.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.07.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ALERION Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ALERION CLEANPOWER's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
ALERION CLEANPOWER Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ALERION CLEANPOWER | ALERION CLEANPOWER Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
ALERION CLEANPOWER Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting ALERION CLEANPOWER's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ALERION CLEANPOWER's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.99 and 20.84, respectively. We have considered ALERION CLEANPOWER's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ALERION CLEANPOWER stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ALERION CLEANPOWER stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.4488 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -8.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3126 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0172 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 19.069 |
Predictive Modules for ALERION CLEANPOWER
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ALERION CLEANPOWER. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.ALERION CLEANPOWER After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of ALERION CLEANPOWER at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ALERION CLEANPOWER or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ALERION CLEANPOWER, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
ALERION CLEANPOWER Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting ALERION CLEANPOWER's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ALERION CLEANPOWER's historical news coverage. ALERION CLEANPOWER's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 15.97 and 20.81, respectively. We have considered ALERION CLEANPOWER's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
ALERION CLEANPOWER is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ALERION CLEANPOWER is based on 3 months time horizon.
ALERION CLEANPOWER Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ALERION CLEANPOWER is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ALERION CLEANPOWER backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ALERION CLEANPOWER, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 2.42 | 0.01 | 0.70 | 5 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
18.40 | 18.39 | 0.05 |
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ALERION CLEANPOWER Hype Timeline
ALERION CLEANPOWER is currently traded for 18.40on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.7. ALERION is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 18.39. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price drop on the next news is expected to be -0.05%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.06%. The volatility of related hype on ALERION CLEANPOWER is about 20.69%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 19.10. About 88.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of ALERION CLEANPOWER was currently reported as 6.4. The company last dividend was issued on the 5th of May 2025. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ALERION CLEANPOWER to cross-verify your projections.ALERION CLEANPOWER Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to ALERION CLEANPOWER's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ALERION CLEANPOWER's future price movements. Getting to know how ALERION CLEANPOWER's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ALERION CLEANPOWER may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SII | Wheaton Precious Metals | 5.50 | 7 per month | 2.34 | 0.16 | 4.09 | (3.88) | 15.45 | |
| CJ6 | CAMECO | 0.00 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 4.15 | (4.89) | 16.20 | |
| 6HW | BANK HANDLOWY | 111.16 | 7 per month | 0.61 | 0.12 | 2.49 | (1.34) | 5.13 | |
| UBW1 | Babcock Wilcox Enterprises | 0.20 | 3 per month | 8.40 | 0.09 | 17.92 | (13.99) | 51.11 | |
| 52SA | SYSTEMAIR AB | 0.05 | 5 per month | 1.24 | 0.06 | 2.65 | (2.33) | 19.56 | |
| 169 | Aeroporto Guglielmo Marconi | 0.16 | 4 per month | 1.43 | 0.15 | 4.98 | (2.27) | 13.56 | |
| G1MN | Globex Mining Enterprises | 0.00 | 6 per month | 1.74 | 0.27 | 7.32 | (3.64) | 19.55 | |
| FMV | First Majestic Silver | (0.25) | 6 per month | 4.24 | 0.20 | 8.46 | (6.32) | 24.51 | |
| VIS | Viscofan | 0.10 | 3 per month | 0.37 | (0.02) | 0.96 | (1.11) | 4.82 | |
| TOM | Toyota Motor | 0.07 | 3 per month | 1.30 | 0.12 | 3.28 | (2.62) | 7.52 |
Other Forecasting Options for ALERION CLEANPOWER
For every potential investor in ALERION, whether a beginner or expert, ALERION CLEANPOWER's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ALERION Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ALERION. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ALERION CLEANPOWER's price trends.ALERION CLEANPOWER Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ALERION CLEANPOWER stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ALERION CLEANPOWER could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ALERION CLEANPOWER by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ALERION CLEANPOWER Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ALERION CLEANPOWER stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ALERION CLEANPOWER shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ALERION CLEANPOWER stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ALERION CLEANPOWER entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 18.4 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 18.4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.04) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.08) |
ALERION CLEANPOWER Risk Indicators
The analysis of ALERION CLEANPOWER's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ALERION CLEANPOWER's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alerion stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.66 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.3 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.39 | |||
| Variance | 5.73 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.79 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.29 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.90) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ALERION CLEANPOWER
The number of cover stories for ALERION CLEANPOWER depends on current market conditions and ALERION CLEANPOWER's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ALERION CLEANPOWER is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ALERION CLEANPOWER's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in ALERION Stock
ALERION CLEANPOWER financial ratios help investors to determine whether ALERION Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in ALERION with respect to the benefits of owning ALERION CLEANPOWER security.