Four Seasons Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| FEDU Stock | USD 9.80 0.25 2.49% |
Four Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Four Seasons' share price is approaching 38. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Four Seasons, making its price go up or down. Momentum 38
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 3.586 | Wall Street Target Price 4.37 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.079 |
Using Four Seasons hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Four Seasons Education from the perspective of Four Seasons response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Four Seasons Education on the next trading day is expected to be 8.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49 and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.06. Four Seasons after-hype prediction price | USD 9.81 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Four Seasons to cross-verify your projections. Four Seasons Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Four price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Four using various technical indicators. When you analyze Four charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Four Seasons' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2016-02-29 | Previous Quarter 210.8 M | Current Value 87.9 M | Quarterly Volatility 212.2 M |
Four Seasons Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Four Seasons Education on the next trading day is expected to be 8.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49, mean absolute percentage error of 0.45, and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.06.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Four Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Four Seasons' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Four Seasons Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Four Seasons | Four Seasons Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Four Seasons Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Four Seasons' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Four Seasons' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.39 and 15.11, respectively. We have considered Four Seasons' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Four Seasons stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Four Seasons stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.3145 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4928 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0428 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 30.0594 |
Predictive Modules for Four Seasons
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Four Seasons Education. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Four Seasons' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Four Seasons After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Four Seasons at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Four Seasons or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Four Seasons, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Four Seasons Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Four Seasons' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Four Seasons' historical news coverage. Four Seasons' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3.45 and 16.17, respectively. We have considered Four Seasons' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Four Seasons is moderately volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Four Seasons Education is based on 3 months time horizon.
Four Seasons Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Four Seasons is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Four Seasons backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Four Seasons, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.33 | 6.36 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 25 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 25 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
9.80 | 9.81 | 0.10 |
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Four Seasons Hype Timeline
Four Seasons Education is currently traded for 9.80. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.08. Four is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 9.81 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.1%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.33%. The volatility of related hype on Four Seasons is about 2637.79%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 9.88. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 251.08 M. Net Loss for the year was (627 K) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 56.31 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 25 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Four Seasons to cross-verify your projections.Four Seasons Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Four Seasons' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Four Seasons' future price movements. Getting to know how Four Seasons' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Four Seasons may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MYND | Myndai | 0.04 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 6.98 | (7.46) | 19.22 | |
| GSUN | Golden Sun Education | (0.15) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 6.90 | (9.89) | 27.57 | |
| SNAX | Stryve Foods | 2.04 | 17 per month | 26.16 | 0.19 | 233.33 | (60.00) | 1,743 | |
| SBEV | Splash Beverage Group | 0.41 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 15.58 | (14.84) | 74.08 | |
| ORIS | Oriental Rise Holdings | (0.08) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 13.39 | (12.77) | 44.35 | |
| VSTD | Vestand | (0.06) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 11.54 | (15.38) | 41.27 | |
| LXEH | Lixiang Education Holding | (0.05) | 15 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 9.09 | (10.34) | 21.38 | |
| FAMI | Farmmi Inc | 0.01 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 6.21 | (7.98) | 19.60 | |
| EEIQ | Elite Education Group | 0.01 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 8.33 | (7.14) | 25.87 |
Other Forecasting Options for Four Seasons
For every potential investor in Four, whether a beginner or expert, Four Seasons' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Four Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Four. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Four Seasons' price trends.Four Seasons Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Four Seasons stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Four Seasons could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Four Seasons by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Four Seasons Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Four Seasons stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Four Seasons shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Four Seasons stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Four Seasons Education entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 9.8 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 9.8 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.12) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.25) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 38.93 |
Four Seasons Risk Indicators
The analysis of Four Seasons' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Four Seasons' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting four stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.63 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.21 | |||
| Variance | 38.59 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Four Seasons
The number of cover stories for Four Seasons depends on current market conditions and Four Seasons' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Four Seasons is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Four Seasons' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Four Seasons Short Properties
Four Seasons' future price predictability will typically decrease when Four Seasons' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Four Seasons Education often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Four Seasons' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Four Seasons' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 212.3 K | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 266.2 M |
Additional Tools for Four Stock Analysis
When running Four Seasons' price analysis, check to measure Four Seasons' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Four Seasons is operating at the current time. Most of Four Seasons' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Four Seasons' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Four Seasons' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Four Seasons to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.