First Trust ETF Forward View - 8 Period Moving Average
| FEM ETF | USD 33.29 -0.41 -1.22% |
First Trust's 8 Period Moving Average forecast is computed from observed closing prices over the selected horizon. The accuracy statistics below distinguish a well-fitted model from one that is smoothing over meaningful price movement. The 8 Period Moving Average model projects First Trust at 33.17 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. The 8 Period Moving Average output reflects statistical model results and is provided for reference purposes.
8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 8th of May
Over a 90-day horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average model forecasts First Trust at 33.17 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and sum of absolute errors of 31.51 .This represents a very tight forecast — the model closely tracks First Trust's recent price behavior. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
ETF Forecast Pattern
| Backtest First Trust | First Trust Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
First Trust's next-session forecast estimates practical downside and upside boundaries based on the model's historical fit. The model places downside around 31.74 and upside around 34.61 for the next session. The moderate spread reflects defined uncertainty around the forecast.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the 8 Period Moving Average model's error metrics for First Trust ETF. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 102.8205 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2267 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5946 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.019 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 31.5137 |
Other Forecasting Options for First Trust
Analyzing First Trust's price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in First Trust's chart signal overbought or oversold conditions.First Trust Comparable Funds
The related funds below provide a category-based comparison set for First Trust's. This peer set gives investors a way to compare First Trust's structure and outcomes against similar portfolio vehicles. Category-relative analysis helps separate fund-specific behavior from broader market moves affecting the whole group. This category lens gives the comparison list a clearer purpose for First Trust.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
First Trust Market Strength Events
For investors tracking First Trust Emerging, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of ETF behavior. When Rate of Change diverges from price direction, it often signals weakening momentum before a visible reversal in First Trust.
First Trust Risk Indicators
Analyzing First Trust's basic risk indicators provides a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for first trust etf. Expected shortfall estimates the average loss in the worst-case tail scenarios, going beyond what standard deviation alone captures for First Trust.
| Mean Deviation | 1.04 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.33 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.43 | |||
| Variance | 2.05 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.25 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.76 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.11 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.