Fennec Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| FENC Stock | USD 7.80 0.10 1.30% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Fennec Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 7.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.72. Fennec Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Fennec Pharmaceuticals stock prices and determine the direction of Fennec Pharmaceuticals's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Fennec Pharmaceuticals' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the value of RSI of Fennec Pharmaceuticals' share price is approaching 48. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Fennec Pharmaceuticals, making its price go up or down. Momentum 48
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Fennec Pharmaceuticals hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Fennec Pharmaceuticals from the perspective of Fennec Pharmaceuticals response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Fennec Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 7.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.72. Fennec Pharmaceuticals after-hype prediction price | USD 7.8 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fennec Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Fennec Stock refer to our How to Trade Fennec Stock guide.Fennec Pharmaceuticals Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Fennec price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Fennec using various technical indicators. When you analyze Fennec charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Fennec Pharmaceuticals Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Fennec Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 7.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.72.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fennec Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fennec Pharmaceuticals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Fennec Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Fennec Pharmaceuticals | Fennec Pharmaceuticals Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Fennec Pharmaceuticals Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Fennec Pharmaceuticals' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fennec Pharmaceuticals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.46 and 10.33, respectively. We have considered Fennec Pharmaceuticals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fennec Pharmaceuticals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fennec Pharmaceuticals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.4875 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2085 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0261 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12.7198 |
Predictive Modules for Fennec Pharmaceuticals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fennec Pharmaceuticals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Fennec Pharmaceuticals After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Fennec Pharmaceuticals at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Fennec Pharmaceuticals or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Fennec Pharmaceuticals, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Fennec Pharmaceuticals Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Fennec Pharmaceuticals' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Fennec Pharmaceuticals' historical news coverage. Fennec Pharmaceuticals' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 4.87 and 10.73, respectively. We have considered Fennec Pharmaceuticals' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Fennec Pharmaceuticals is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Fennec Pharmaceuticals is based on 3 months time horizon.
Fennec Pharmaceuticals Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Fennec Pharmaceuticals is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Fennec Pharmaceuticals backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Fennec Pharmaceuticals, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.19 | 2.93 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
7.80 | 7.80 | 0.00 |
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Fennec Pharmaceuticals Hype Timeline
Fennec Pharmaceuticals is currently traded for 7.80. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.33. Fennec is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.19%. %. The volatility of related hype on Fennec Pharmaceuticals is about 166.29%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 7.47. About 13.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.26. Fennec Pharmaceuticals had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:3 split on the 9th of September 2014. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fennec Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Fennec Stock refer to our How to Trade Fennec Stock guide.Fennec Pharmaceuticals Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Fennec Pharmaceuticals' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Fennec Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. Getting to know how Fennec Pharmaceuticals' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Fennec Pharmaceuticals may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EPRX | Eupraxia Pharmaceuticals Common | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.75 | 0.18 | 6.98 | (3.94) | 24.61 | |
| AARD | Aardvark Therapeutics Common | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.21 | 0.11 | 9.25 | (7.56) | 36.39 | |
| RNAC | Cartesian Therapeutics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 7.26 | (8.01) | 28.90 | |
| PRLD | Prelude Therapeutics | 1.31 | 3 per month | 11.66 | 0.1 | 16.44 | (16.17) | 206.09 | |
| CRBU | Caribou Biosciences | 2.56 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 6.83 | (6.41) | 20.16 | |
| AVTX | Avalo Therapeutics | (13.66) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 6.64 | (6.26) | 23.40 | |
| ENTA | Enanta Pharmaceuticals | (11.75) | 3 per month | 2.62 | 0.08 | 5.67 | (3.59) | 15.79 | |
| BDTX | Black Diamond Therapeutics | 1.66 | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 5.96 | (8.35) | 34.11 | |
| NAUT | Nautilus Biotechnology | 2.24 | 11 per month | 5.45 | 0.17 | 16.32 | (12.00) | 53.15 | |
| OBIO | Orchestra BioMed Holdings | 0.02 | 9 per month | 3.85 | 0.07 | 10.54 | (6.20) | 25.95 |
Other Forecasting Options for Fennec Pharmaceuticals
For every potential investor in Fennec, whether a beginner or expert, Fennec Pharmaceuticals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fennec Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fennec. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fennec Pharmaceuticals' price trends.Fennec Pharmaceuticals Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fennec Pharmaceuticals stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fennec Pharmaceuticals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fennec Pharmaceuticals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Fennec Pharmaceuticals Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fennec Pharmaceuticals stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fennec Pharmaceuticals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fennec Pharmaceuticals stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Fennec Pharmaceuticals entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Fennec Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators
The analysis of Fennec Pharmaceuticals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fennec Pharmaceuticals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fennec stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.12 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.93 | |||
| Variance | 8.6 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Fennec Pharmaceuticals
The number of cover stories for Fennec Pharmaceuticals depends on current market conditions and Fennec Pharmaceuticals' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Fennec Pharmaceuticals is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Fennec Pharmaceuticals' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Fennec Pharmaceuticals Short Properties
Fennec Pharmaceuticals' future price predictability will typically decrease when Fennec Pharmaceuticals' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Fennec Pharmaceuticals often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Fennec Pharmaceuticals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Fennec Pharmaceuticals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 27.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 26.6 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fennec Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Fennec Stock refer to our How to Trade Fennec Stock guide.You can also try the Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fennec Pharmaceuticals. If investors know Fennec will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Fennec Pharmaceuticals listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Fennec Pharmaceuticals is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Fennec that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Fennec Pharmaceuticals' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Fennec Pharmaceuticals' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Fennec Pharmaceuticals' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Fennec Pharmaceuticals' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fennec Pharmaceuticals' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fennec Pharmaceuticals is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fennec Pharmaceuticals' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.