Fifth Era Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| FERA Stock | 10.26 0.02 0.19% |
Fifth Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Fifth Era stock prices and determine the direction of Fifth Era Acquisition's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Fifth Era's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Fifth Era's share price is approaching 46. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Fifth Era, making its price go up or down. Momentum 46
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Fifth Era hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Fifth Era Acquisition from the perspective of Fifth Era response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fifth Era Acquisition on the next trading day is expected to be 10.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.17. Fifth Era after-hype prediction price | USD 10.26 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fifth Era to cross-verify your projections. Fifth Era Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Fifth price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Fifth using various technical indicators. When you analyze Fifth charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Fifth Era Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fifth Era Acquisition on the next trading day is expected to be 10.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.17.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fifth Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fifth Era's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Fifth Era Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Fifth Era | Fifth Era Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Fifth Era Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Fifth Era's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fifth Era's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.92 and 10.60, respectively. We have considered Fifth Era's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fifth Era stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fifth Era stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 109.4902 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 2.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0195 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0019 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.1698 |
Predictive Modules for Fifth Era
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fifth Era Acquisition. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Fifth Era After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Fifth Era at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Fifth Era or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Fifth Era, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Fifth Era Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Fifth Era's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Fifth Era's historical news coverage. Fifth Era's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.92 and 10.60, respectively. We have considered Fifth Era's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Fifth Era is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Fifth Era Acquisition is based on 3 months time horizon.
Fifth Era Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Fifth Era is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Fifth Era backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Fifth Era, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
10.26 | 10.26 | 0.00 |
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Fifth Era Hype Timeline
Fifth Era Acquisition is currently traded for 10.26. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Fifth is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Fifth Era is about 9066.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.26. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fifth Era to cross-verify your projections.Fifth Era Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Fifth Era's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Fifth Era's future price movements. Getting to know how Fifth Era's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Fifth Era may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| POLE | Andretti Acquisition Corp | 0.01 | 7 per month | 0.30 | (0.18) | 0.38 | (0.75) | 2.71 | |
| OBA | Oxley Bridge Acquisition | (0.01) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.35) | 0.40 | (0.20) | 1.00 | |
| CUB | Lionheart Holdings | 0.01 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.36) | 0.28 | (0.28) | 0.85 | |
| PCAP | ProCap Acquisition Corp | 0.02 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.31) | 0.49 | (0.49) | 1.92 | |
| LPAA | Launch One Acquisition | (0.01) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.44) | 0.28 | (0.19) | 0.76 | |
| JACS | Jackson Acquisition | 0.03 | 5 per month | 0.08 | (0.38) | 0.29 | (0.29) | 0.96 | |
| TVA | Texas Ventures Acquisition | (0.02) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 0.95 | (1.09) | 4.28 | |
| SIMA | SIM Acquisition Corp | 0.00 | 8 per month | 0.13 | (0.34) | 0.28 | (0.38) | 1.42 |
Other Forecasting Options for Fifth Era
For every potential investor in Fifth, whether a beginner or expert, Fifth Era's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fifth Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fifth. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fifth Era's price trends.Fifth Era Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fifth Era stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fifth Era could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fifth Era by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Fifth Era Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fifth Era stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fifth Era shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fifth Era stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Fifth Era Acquisition entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 10.26 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 10.26 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.01) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.02) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 46.0 |
Fifth Era Risk Indicators
The analysis of Fifth Era's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fifth Era's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fifth stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.2218 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.4731 | |||
| Variance | 0.2238 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Fifth Era
The number of cover stories for Fifth Era depends on current market conditions and Fifth Era's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Fifth Era is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Fifth Era's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Fifth Era Short Properties
Fifth Era's future price predictability will typically decrease when Fifth Era's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Fifth Era Acquisition often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Fifth Era's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Fifth Era's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Shares Short Prior Month | 462 | |
| Shares Float | 14.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fifth Era to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.
Is Shell Companies space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fifth Era. If investors know Fifth will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Fifth Era listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Fifth Era Acquisition is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Fifth that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Fifth Era's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Fifth Era's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Fifth Era's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Fifth Era's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fifth Era's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fifth Era is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fifth Era's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.