Innovator IBD Etf Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| FFTY Etf | USD 35.75 2.79 7.24% |
Innovator Etf outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength momentum indicator of Innovator IBD's share price is approaching 44. This usually indicates that the etf is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Innovator IBD, making its price go up or down. Momentum 44
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Innovator IBD hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Innovator IBD 50 from the perspective of Innovator IBD response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Innovator IBD using Innovator IBD's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Innovator using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Innovator IBD's stock price.
Innovator IBD Implied Volatility | 0.53 |
Innovator IBD's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Innovator IBD 50 stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Innovator IBD's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Innovator IBD stock will not fluctuate a lot when Innovator IBD's options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Innovator IBD 50 on the next trading day is expected to be 35.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.68 and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.57. Innovator IBD after-hype prediction price | USD 35.87 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Innovator | Build AI portfolio with Innovator Etf |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Innovator contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Innovator IBD 50 will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0331% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Innovator IBD trading at USD 35.75, that is roughly USD 0.0118 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Innovator IBD's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Innovator IBD 50 options at the current volatility level of 0.53%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Innovator Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Innovator IBD's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Innovator IBD's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Innovator IBD stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Innovator IBD's open interest, investors have to compare it to Innovator IBD's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Innovator IBD is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Innovator. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Innovator IBD Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Innovator price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Innovator using various technical indicators. When you analyze Innovator charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Innovator IBD Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Innovator IBD 50 on the next trading day is expected to be 35.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.68, mean absolute percentage error of 0.86, and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.57.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Innovator Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Innovator IBD's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Innovator IBD Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Innovator IBD | Innovator IBD Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Innovator IBD Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Innovator IBD's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Innovator IBD's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 32.73 and 37.37, respectively. We have considered Innovator IBD's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Innovator IBD etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Innovator IBD etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.103 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6762 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.019 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 40.5724 |
Predictive Modules for Innovator IBD
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Innovator IBD 50. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Innovator IBD's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Innovator IBD After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Innovator IBD at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Innovator IBD or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of Innovator IBD, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Innovator IBD Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Innovator IBD's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Innovator IBD's historical news coverage. Innovator IBD's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 33.55 and 38.19, respectively. We have considered Innovator IBD's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Innovator IBD is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Innovator IBD 50 is based on 3 months time horizon.
Innovator IBD Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as Innovator IBD is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Innovator IBD backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Innovator IBD, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.16 | 2.32 | 0.12 | 0.01 | 10 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
35.75 | 35.87 | 0.34 |
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Innovator IBD Hype Timeline
Innovator IBD 50 is currently traded for 35.75. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.12, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Innovator is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 35.87 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.34%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.16%. The volatility of related hype on Innovator IBD is about 4549.02%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 35.74. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Innovator IBD to cross-verify your projections.Innovator IBD Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Innovator IBD's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Innovator IBD's future price movements. Getting to know how Innovator IBD's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Innovator IBD may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FDIF | Fidelity Disruptors ETF | (0.01) | 2 per month | 0.98 | (0.05) | 1.32 | (1.74) | 4.28 | |
| SGLC | Rbb Fund | 0.04 | 2 per month | 0.91 | 0.08 | 1.61 | (1.59) | 4.67 | |
| ACES | ALPS Clean Energy | 0.09 | 4 per month | 1.99 | (0) | 2.85 | (2.83) | 10.69 | |
| TRFM | ETF Series Solutions | 0.03 | 3 per month | 1.50 | (0.03) | 2.17 | (2.68) | 5.49 | |
| TMFE | Motley Fool Capital | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 1.20 | (1.29) | 3.25 | |
| FEBT | AIM ETF Products | (0.01) | 2 per month | 0.39 | (0.01) | 0.68 | (0.74) | 2.30 | |
| BMVP | Invesco Bloomberg MVP | 0.01 | 3 per month | 0.56 | 0.04 | 1.11 | (0.96) | 3.43 | |
| XSEP | FT Cboe Vest | (0.03) | 3 per month | 0.24 | (0.11) | 0.46 | (0.55) | 1.59 | |
| RZG | Invesco SP SmallCap | (0.02) | 2 per month | 1.01 | 0.01 | 1.86 | (1.73) | 4.97 | |
| CNBS | Amplify Seymour Cannabis | (0.61) | 4 per month | 6.58 | 0 | 10.52 | (8.43) | 80.06 |
Other Forecasting Options for Innovator IBD
For every potential investor in Innovator, whether a beginner or expert, Innovator IBD's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Innovator Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Innovator. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Innovator IBD's price trends.Innovator IBD Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Innovator IBD etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Innovator IBD could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Innovator IBD by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Innovator IBD Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Innovator IBD etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Innovator IBD shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Innovator IBD etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Innovator IBD 50 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 11733.44 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.35) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.93 | |||
| Day Median Price | 36.72 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 36.4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (2.37) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (2.79) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 44.0 |
Innovator IBD Risk Indicators
The analysis of Innovator IBD's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Innovator IBD's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting innovator etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.5 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.09 | |||
| Variance | 4.37 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Innovator IBD
The number of cover stories for Innovator IBD depends on current market conditions and Innovator IBD's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Innovator IBD is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Innovator IBD's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Innovator IBD to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Commodity Directory module to find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges.
The market value of Innovator IBD 50 is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Innovator that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Innovator IBD's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Innovator IBD's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Innovator IBD's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Innovator IBD's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Innovator IBD's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Innovator IBD is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Meanwhile, Innovator IBD's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.