FibroGen Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| FGEN Stock | USD 8.78 0.08 0.92% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of FibroGen on the next trading day is expected to be 7.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.12. FibroGen Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although FibroGen's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of FibroGen's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of FibroGen fundamentals over time.
As of today the rsi of FibroGen's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.536 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (4.17) | EPS Estimate Current Year (6.97) | EPS Estimate Next Year (11.95) | Wall Street Target Price 43 |
Using FibroGen hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of FibroGen from the perspective of FibroGen response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards FibroGen using FibroGen's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards FibroGen using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of FibroGen's stock price.
FibroGen Implied Volatility | 1.27 |
FibroGen's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of FibroGen stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if FibroGen's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that FibroGen stock will not fluctuate a lot when FibroGen's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of FibroGen on the next trading day is expected to be 7.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.12. FibroGen after-hype prediction price | USD 8.78 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of FibroGen to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-01-16 FibroGen Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast FibroGen's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in FibroGen's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for FibroGen stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current FibroGen's open interest, investors have to compare it to FibroGen's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of FibroGen is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in FibroGen. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
FibroGen Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine FibroGen price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for FibroGen using various technical indicators. When you analyze FibroGen charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
FibroGen Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the FibroGen's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2012-12-31 | Previous Quarter 23.4 M | Current Value 118 M | Quarterly Volatility 189.3 M |
FibroGen Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of FibroGen on the next trading day is expected to be 7.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.33, mean absolute percentage error of 0.18, and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.12.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict FibroGen Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that FibroGen's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
FibroGen Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest FibroGen | FibroGen Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
FibroGen Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting FibroGen's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. FibroGen's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.84 and 11.92, respectively. We have considered FibroGen's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of FibroGen stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent FibroGen stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.4143 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3298 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0349 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 20.1206 |
Predictive Modules for FibroGen
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FibroGen. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of FibroGen's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for FibroGen
For every potential investor in FibroGen, whether a beginner or expert, FibroGen's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. FibroGen Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in FibroGen. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying FibroGen's price trends.FibroGen Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with FibroGen stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of FibroGen could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing FibroGen by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
FibroGen Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of FibroGen's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of FibroGen's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
FibroGen Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how FibroGen stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading FibroGen shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying FibroGen stock market strength indicators, traders can identify FibroGen entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
FibroGen Risk Indicators
The analysis of FibroGen's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in FibroGen's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fibrogen stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.49 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.94 | |||
| Variance | 15.51 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with FibroGen
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if FibroGen position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in FibroGen will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against FibroGen Stock
| 0.91 | CSCO | Cisco Systems | PairCorr |
| 0.87 | AMGN | Amgen Inc | PairCorr |
| 0.85 | MRK | Merck Company | PairCorr |
| 0.78 | KO | Coca Cola | PairCorr |
| 0.77 | GILD | Gilead Sciences | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to FibroGen could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace FibroGen when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back FibroGen - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling FibroGen to buy it.
The correlation of FibroGen is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as FibroGen moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if FibroGen moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for FibroGen can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of FibroGen to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in FibroGen Stock, please use our How to Invest in FibroGen guide.You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of FibroGen. If investors know FibroGen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about FibroGen listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.536 | Earnings Share (12.85) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 7.748 | Return On Assets |
The market value of FibroGen is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of FibroGen that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of FibroGen's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is FibroGen's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because FibroGen's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect FibroGen's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between FibroGen's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if FibroGen is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, FibroGen's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.