Fibrogen Stock Price Prediction
| FGEN Stock | USD 0.42 0.03 7.69% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
48
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.536 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.22) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.86) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.38) | Wall Street Target Price 0.6 |
Using FibroGen hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of FibroGen from the perspective of FibroGen response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in FibroGen to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying FibroGen because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
FibroGen after-hype prediction price | USD 0.39 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
FibroGen |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of FibroGen's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
FibroGen After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of FibroGen at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in FibroGen or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of FibroGen, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
FibroGen Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting FibroGen's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on FibroGen's historical news coverage. FibroGen's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.02 and 6.81, respectively. We have considered FibroGen's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
FibroGen is abnormally volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of FibroGen is based on 3 months time horizon.
FibroGen Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as FibroGen is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading FibroGen backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with FibroGen, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.46 | 6.42 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 9 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
0.42 | 0.39 | 0.00 |
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FibroGen Hype Timeline
FibroGen is currently traded for 0.42. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.13. FibroGen is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.46%. %. The volatility of related hype on FibroGen is about 2194.87%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.55. About 55.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company recorded a loss per share of 1.23. FibroGen had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:1 split on the September 8, 2009. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out FibroGen Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.FibroGen Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to FibroGen's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict FibroGen's future price movements. Getting to know how FibroGen's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how FibroGen may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CUE | Cue Biopharma | 0.02 | 8 per month | 5.91 | 0.11 | 20.27 | (11.51) | 67.78 | |
| ELYM | Eliem Therapeutics | 0.25 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 6.21 | (9.35) | 34.87 | |
| INBX | Inhibrx | 1.00 | 6 per month | 2.70 | 0.02 | 5.54 | (6.11) | 16.80 | |
| MOLN | Molecular Partners AG | (0.10) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 9.38 | (8.53) | 52.92 |
FibroGen Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine FibroGen price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for FibroGen using various technical indicators. When you analyze FibroGen charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About FibroGen Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of FibroGen stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as FibroGen, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of FibroGen based on analysis of FibroGen hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to FibroGen's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to FibroGen's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0235 | 0.0209 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.58 | 0.55 |
Story Coverage note for FibroGen
The number of cover stories for FibroGen depends on current market conditions and FibroGen's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that FibroGen is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about FibroGen's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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FibroGen Short Properties
FibroGen's future price predictability will typically decrease when FibroGen's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of FibroGen often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential FibroGen's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. FibroGen's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 97.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 235.6 M |
Check out FibroGen Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in FibroGen Stock, please use our How to Invest in FibroGen guide.You can also try the Portfolio Dashboard module to portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of FibroGen. If investors know FibroGen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about FibroGen listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.536 | Earnings Share (1.23) | Revenue Per Share 1.758 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.143 | Return On Assets (0.27) |
The market value of FibroGen is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of FibroGen that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of FibroGen's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is FibroGen's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because FibroGen's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect FibroGen's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between FibroGen's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if FibroGen is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, FibroGen's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.