First Investors Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

First Investors Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine First price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First using various technical indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur. A naive forecasting model for First Investors is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of First Investors Growth value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

First Investors Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of First Investors Growth on the next trading day is expected to be 17.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.39.

First Investors Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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First Investors Price Prediction

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First Investors Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Investors mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Investors mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of First Investors Growth. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict First Investors. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for First Investors

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Investors Growth. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 0.00 0.00 1.54 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 0.00 0.00 1.54 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 16.59 17.19 17.79 Details

First Investors After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

First Investors Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

First Investors Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

First Investors Hype Timeline

First Investors Growth is currently traded for 17.68. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -6.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. First is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 9.47%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.37%. %. The volatility of related hype on First Investors is about 92400.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 17.68. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next projected press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Investors to cross-verify your projections.

First Investors Related Hype Analysis

Other Forecasting Options for First Investors

For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First Investors' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First Investors' price trends.

First Investors Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

First Investors Market Strength Events

First Investors Risk Indicators

Story Coverage note for First Investors

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Other Information on Investing in First Mutual Fund