Founder Group Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| FGL Stock | 0.16 0.01 6.00% |
Founder Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Founder Group's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Founder Group's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Founder Group fundamentals over time.
As of now, the relative strength momentum indicator of Founder Group's share price is approaching 39. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Founder Group, making its price go up or down. Momentum 39
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.822 |
Using Founder Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Founder Group Limited from the perspective of Founder Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Founder Group Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 0.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.88. Founder Group after-hype prediction price | USD 0.14 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Founder Group to cross-verify your projections. Founder Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Founder price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Founder using various technical indicators. When you analyze Founder charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Founder Group Cash Forecast
To forecast cash or other financial indicators, analysts must employ diverse statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. This approach allows them to detect underlying patterns in the Founder Group's financial statements, predicting their influence on future market prices.
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 16 M | Current Value 16.8 M | Quarterly Volatility 5.6 M |
Founder Group Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Founder Group Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 0.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.88.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Founder Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Founder Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Founder Group Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Founder Group | Founder Group Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Founder Group Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Founder Group's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Founder Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 9.77, respectively. We have considered Founder Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Founder Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Founder Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.7821 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0308 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.1048 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.8767 |
Predictive Modules for Founder Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Founder Group Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Founder Group After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Founder Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Founder Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Founder Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Founder Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Founder Group's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Founder Group's historical news coverage. Founder Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.01 and 9.74, respectively. We have considered Founder Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Founder Group is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Founder Group Limited is based on 3 months time horizon.
Founder Group Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Founder Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Founder Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Founder Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.20 | 9.60 | 0.01 | 0.10 | 8 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
0.16 | 0.14 | 6.67 |
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Founder Group Hype Timeline
On the 27th of January Founder Group Limited is traded for 0.16. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.1. Founder is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 0.14. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -6.67%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -1.2%. The volatility of related hype on Founder Group is about 11707.32%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.06. About 75.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.69. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Founder Group Limited has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.95. The entity recorded a loss per share of 0.07. The firm last dividend was issued on the 10th of August 2017. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Founder Group to cross-verify your projections.Founder Group Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Founder Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Founder Group's future price movements. Getting to know how Founder Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Founder Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SKK | PROSHARES ULTRASHORT RUSSELL | 0.01 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 6.45 | (6.06) | 16.80 | |
| FBGL | FBS Global Limited | 0.07 | 5 per month | 5.35 | 0.15 | 12.64 | (7.53) | 34.97 | |
| GLXG | Galaxy Payroll Group | (0.10) | 30 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 10.30 | (14.81) | 53.25 | |
| AEHL | Antelope Enterprise Holdings | (0.21) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.01) | 10.83 | (17.77) | 134.82 | |
| DEVS | DevvStream Corp Common | (0.76) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 11.76 | (10.71) | 41.39 | |
| LNKS | Linkers Industries Limited | 0.02 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 6.67 | (10.00) | 32.58 | |
| IVDA | Iveda Solutions | 0.10 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 14.78 | (12.64) | 50.60 | |
| CDTG | CDT Environmental Technology | (0.01) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 14.71 | (16.67) | 48.33 | |
| INTJ | Intelligent Group Limited | (0.02) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 7.41 | (10.42) | 29.93 | |
| OP | OP Old | 0.08 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 10.95 | (19.70) | 52.42 |
Other Forecasting Options for Founder Group
For every potential investor in Founder, whether a beginner or expert, Founder Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Founder Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Founder. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Founder Group's price trends.Founder Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Founder Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Founder Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Founder Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Founder Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Founder Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Founder Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Founder Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Founder Group Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Founder Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of Founder Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Founder Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting founder stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 6.89 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 9.94 | |||
| Variance | 98.71 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Founder Group
The number of cover stories for Founder Group depends on current market conditions and Founder Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Founder Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Founder Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Founder Group Short Properties
Founder Group's future price predictability will typically decrease when Founder Group's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Founder Group Limited often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Founder Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Founder Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 16.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 13.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Founder Group to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
Is Construction & Engineering space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Founder Group. If investors know Founder will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Founder Group listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.07) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.822 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Founder Group Limited is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Founder that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Founder Group's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Founder Group's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Founder Group's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Founder Group's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Founder Group's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Founder Group is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Founder Group's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.