Fidelity Government Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| FGOVX Fund | USD 9.35 0.03 0.32% |
Fidelity Mutual Fund outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Fidelity Government's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the mutual fund is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Fidelity Government hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Fidelity Government Income from the perspective of Fidelity Government response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Fidelity Government Income on the next trading day is expected to be 9.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.84. Fidelity Government after-hype prediction price | USD 9.35 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Fidelity |
Fidelity Government Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Fidelity price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Fidelity using various technical indicators. When you analyze Fidelity charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Fidelity Government Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 16th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Fidelity Government Income on the next trading day is expected to be 9.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0003, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.84.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fidelity Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fidelity Government's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Fidelity Government Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Fidelity Government | Fidelity Government Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Fidelity Government Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Fidelity Government's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fidelity Government's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.17 and 9.53, respectively. We have considered Fidelity Government's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fidelity Government mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fidelity Government mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 106.3713 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.004 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0142 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0015 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.835 |
Predictive Modules for Fidelity Government
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fidelity Government. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fidelity Government's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Fidelity Government After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Fidelity Government at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Fidelity Government or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Fidelity Government, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Fidelity Government Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Fidelity Government's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Fidelity Government's historical news coverage. Fidelity Government's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.17 and 9.53, respectively. We have considered Fidelity Government's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Fidelity Government is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Fidelity Government is based on 3 months time horizon.
Fidelity Government Mutual Fund Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Fidelity Government is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Fidelity Government backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Fidelity Government, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
9.35 | 9.35 | 0.00 |
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Fidelity Government Hype Timeline
Fidelity Government is currently traded for 9.35. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Fidelity is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.03%. %. The volatility of related hype on Fidelity Government is about 243.24%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 9.35. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fidelity Government to cross-verify your projections.Fidelity Government Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Fidelity Government's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Fidelity Government's future price movements. Getting to know how Fidelity Government's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Fidelity Government may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FGMNX | Fidelity Gnma Fund | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 0.29 | (0.19) | 0.68 | |
| FDMMX | Fidelity Massachusetts Municipal | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.46) | 0.17 | (0.09) | 0.61 | |
| NAC | Nuveen California Dividend | (0.08) | 4 per month | 0.42 | (0.15) | 0.52 | (0.69) | 1.52 | |
| ETG | Eaton Vance Tax | 0.19 | 6 per month | 0.78 | 0.03 | 1.37 | (1.42) | 3.76 | |
| RQI | Cohen Steers Qualityome | (0.02) | 5 per month | 0.70 | 0.14 | 1.77 | (1.48) | 3.42 | |
| DRGTX | Allianzgi Technology Fund | 0.48 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 1.97 | (2.86) | 6.96 | |
| OBSOX | Oberweis Small Cap Opportunities | 0.00 | 1 per month | 1.25 | 0.03 | 2.04 | (1.94) | 6.38 | |
| QFVOX | Pear Tree Polaris | 0.17 | 2 per month | 0.29 | 0.27 | 1.23 | (1.33) | 3.55 | |
| FCTFX | Fidelity California Municipal | 0.00 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.37) | 0.24 | (0.08) | 0.57 | |
| PRCOX | T Rowe Price | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.84 | (0.06) | 1.26 | (1.50) | 3.70 |
Other Forecasting Options for Fidelity Government
For every potential investor in Fidelity, whether a beginner or expert, Fidelity Government's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fidelity Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fidelity. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fidelity Government's price trends.Fidelity Government Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fidelity Government mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fidelity Government could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fidelity Government by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Fidelity Government Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fidelity Government mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fidelity Government shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fidelity Government mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Fidelity Government Income entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 9.35 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 9.35 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.015 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.03 |
Fidelity Government Risk Indicators
The analysis of Fidelity Government's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fidelity Government's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fidelity mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.1392 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.1749 | |||
| Variance | 0.0306 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0387 | |||
| Semi Variance | (0) | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.18) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Fidelity Government
The number of cover stories for Fidelity Government depends on current market conditions and Fidelity Government's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Fidelity Government is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Fidelity Government's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Fidelity Mutual Fund
Fidelity Government financial ratios help investors to determine whether Fidelity Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Fidelity with respect to the benefits of owning Fidelity Government security.
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