Fica Empreendimentos Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| FIEI3 Stock | 12.60 0.40 3.08% |
Momentum 58
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Fica Empreendimentos hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Fica Empreendimentos Imobiliarios from the perspective of Fica Empreendimentos response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fica Empreendimentos Imobiliarios on the next trading day is expected to be 12.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.83. Fica Empreendimentos after-hype prediction price | BRL 12.6 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Fica |
Fica Empreendimentos Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Fica price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Fica using various technical indicators. When you analyze Fica charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Fica Empreendimentos Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fica Empreendimentos Imobiliarios on the next trading day is expected to be 12.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26, mean absolute percentage error of 0.26, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.83.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fica Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fica Empreendimentos' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Fica Empreendimentos Stock Forecast Pattern
Fica Empreendimentos Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Fica Empreendimentos' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fica Empreendimentos' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.98 and 16.34, respectively. We have considered Fica Empreendimentos' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fica Empreendimentos stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fica Empreendimentos stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.9202 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0584 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2639 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0191 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 15.8311 |
Predictive Modules for Fica Empreendimentos
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fica Empreendimentos. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Fica Empreendimentos. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Fica Empreendimentos' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Fica Empreendimentos' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Fica Empreendimentos.Fica Empreendimentos Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
As far as predicting the price of Fica Empreendimentos at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Fica Empreendimentos or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Fica Empreendimentos, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Fica Empreendimentos Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Fica Empreendimentos is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Fica Empreendimentos backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Fica Empreendimentos, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.07 | 3.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
12.60 | 12.60 | 0.00 |
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Fica Empreendimentos Hype Timeline
Fica Empreendimentos is currently traded for 12.60on Sao Paulo Exchange of Brazil. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Fica is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.07%. %. The volatility of related hype on Fica Empreendimentos is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.60. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be in a few days. Check out Investing Opportunities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in nation.Fica Empreendimentos Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Fica Empreendimentos' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Fica Empreendimentos' future price movements. Getting to know how Fica Empreendimentos' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Fica Empreendimentos may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TECN3 | Technos SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.55 | 0.21 | 4.53 | (2.89) | 9.79 | |
| C1HK34 | Check Point Software | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 0.00 | (2.23) | 14.15 | |
| J1BH34 | JB Hunt Transport | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 13.38 | |
| K1SG34 | Keysight Technologies | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 23.05 | |
| Z1BR34 | Zebra Technologies | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.09 | (3.30) | 12.48 | |
| A1KA34 | Akamai Technologies | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.59 | 0.09 | 5.22 | (2.69) | 12.08 | |
| ROST34 | Ross Stores | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.37 | 0.15 | 2.45 | (0.79) | 16.49 |
Other Forecasting Options for Fica Empreendimentos
For every potential investor in Fica, whether a beginner or expert, Fica Empreendimentos' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fica Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fica. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fica Empreendimentos' price trends.Fica Empreendimentos Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fica Empreendimentos stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fica Empreendimentos could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fica Empreendimentos by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Fica Empreendimentos Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fica Empreendimentos stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fica Empreendimentos shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fica Empreendimentos stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Fica Empreendimentos Imobiliarios entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Fica Empreendimentos Risk Indicators
The analysis of Fica Empreendimentos' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fica Empreendimentos' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fica stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.1 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.74 | |||
| Variance | 13.99 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Fica Empreendimentos
The number of cover stories for Fica Empreendimentos depends on current market conditions and Fica Empreendimentos' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Fica Empreendimentos is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Fica Empreendimentos' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Fica Stock Analysis
When running Fica Empreendimentos' price analysis, check to measure Fica Empreendimentos' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Fica Empreendimentos is operating at the current time. Most of Fica Empreendimentos' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Fica Empreendimentos' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Fica Empreendimentos' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Fica Empreendimentos to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.