Delaware Opportunity Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

FIZRX Fund   36.53  0.28  0.76%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Delaware Opportunity on the next trading day is expected to be 37.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.81. Delaware Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Delaware Opportunity's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the mutual fund is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Delaware Opportunity's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Delaware Opportunity, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Delaware Opportunity hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Delaware Opportunity from the perspective of Delaware Opportunity response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Delaware Opportunity on the next trading day is expected to be 37.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.81.

Delaware Opportunity after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 36.53  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Delaware Opportunity to cross-verify your projections.

Delaware Opportunity Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Delaware price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Delaware using various technical indicators. When you analyze Delaware charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Delaware Opportunity is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Delaware Opportunity value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Delaware Opportunity Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Delaware Opportunity on the next trading day is expected to be 37.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43, mean absolute percentage error of 0.32, and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.81.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Delaware Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Delaware Opportunity's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Delaware Opportunity Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Delaware OpportunityDelaware Opportunity Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Delaware Opportunity Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Delaware Opportunity's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Delaware Opportunity's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 35.39 and 38.70, respectively. We have considered Delaware Opportunity's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
36.53
37.05
Expected Value
38.70
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Delaware Opportunity mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Delaware Opportunity mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.8206
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4324
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0131
SAESum of the absolute errors26.8109
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Delaware Opportunity. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Delaware Opportunity. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Delaware Opportunity

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Delaware Opportunity. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
34.8736.5338.19
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
32.8838.9040.56
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
30.9334.7338.52
Details

Delaware Opportunity After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Delaware Opportunity at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Delaware Opportunity or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Delaware Opportunity, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Delaware Opportunity Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Delaware Opportunity's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Delaware Opportunity's historical news coverage. Delaware Opportunity's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 34.87 and 38.19, respectively. We have considered Delaware Opportunity's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
36.53
36.53
After-hype Price
38.19
Upside
Delaware Opportunity is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Delaware Opportunity is based on 3 months time horizon.

Delaware Opportunity Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Delaware Opportunity is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Delaware Opportunity backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Delaware Opportunity, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.28 
1.66
 0.00  
  3.74 
0 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
In a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
36.53
36.53
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Delaware Opportunity Hype Timeline

Delaware Opportunity is currently traded for 36.53. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 3.74. Delaware is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.28%. %. The volatility of related hype on Delaware Opportunity is about 12.44%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 40.27. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next projected press release will be in a few days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Delaware Opportunity to cross-verify your projections.

Delaware Opportunity Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Delaware Opportunity's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Delaware Opportunity's future price movements. Getting to know how Delaware Opportunity's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Delaware Opportunity may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Delaware Opportunity

For every potential investor in Delaware, whether a beginner or expert, Delaware Opportunity's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Delaware Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Delaware. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Delaware Opportunity's price trends.

Delaware Opportunity Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Delaware Opportunity mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Delaware Opportunity could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Delaware Opportunity by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Delaware Opportunity Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Delaware Opportunity mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Delaware Opportunity shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Delaware Opportunity mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Delaware Opportunity entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Delaware Opportunity Risk Indicators

The analysis of Delaware Opportunity's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Delaware Opportunity's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting delaware mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Delaware Opportunity

The number of cover stories for Delaware Opportunity depends on current market conditions and Delaware Opportunity's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Delaware Opportunity is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Delaware Opportunity's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Other Information on Investing in Delaware Mutual Fund

Delaware Opportunity financial ratios help investors to determine whether Delaware Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Delaware with respect to the benefits of owning Delaware Opportunity security.
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