Admiral Group Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| FLN Stock | EUR 29.74 0.38 1.29% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Admiral Group plc on the next trading day is expected to be 29.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.03. Admiral Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Admiral Group's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Admiral |
Admiral Group Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Admiral Group plc on the next trading day is expected to be 29.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31, mean absolute percentage error of 0.16, and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.03.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Admiral Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Admiral Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Admiral Group Stock Forecast Pattern
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Admiral Group Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Admiral Group's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Admiral Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 28.15 and 30.83, respectively. We have considered Admiral Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Admiral Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Admiral Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.104 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3069 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0095 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 19.0287 |
Predictive Modules for Admiral Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Admiral Group plc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Admiral Group
For every potential investor in Admiral, whether a beginner or expert, Admiral Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Admiral Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Admiral. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Admiral Group's price trends.Admiral Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Admiral Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Admiral Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Admiral Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Admiral Group plc Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Admiral Group's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Admiral Group's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Admiral Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Admiral Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Admiral Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Admiral Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Admiral Group plc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 29.74 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 29.74 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.19 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.38 |
Admiral Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of Admiral Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Admiral Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting admiral stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9305 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.3 | |||
| Variance | 1.68 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Other Information on Investing in Admiral Stock
Admiral Group financial ratios help investors to determine whether Admiral Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Admiral with respect to the benefits of owning Admiral Group security.