Franklin Lifesmart Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| FLSOX Fund | USD 17.89 0.10 0.56% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Franklin Lifesmart 2050 on the next trading day is expected to be 17.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.52. Franklin Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Franklin Lifesmart's share price is at 58. This usually indicates that the mutual fund is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Franklin Lifesmart, making its price go up or down. Momentum 58
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Franklin Lifesmart hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Franklin Lifesmart 2050 from the perspective of Franklin Lifesmart response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Franklin Lifesmart 2050 on the next trading day is expected to be 17.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.52. Franklin Lifesmart after-hype prediction price | USD 0.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Franklin |
Franklin Lifesmart Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Franklin price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Franklin using various technical indicators. When you analyze Franklin charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Franklin Lifesmart Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Franklin Lifesmart 2050 on the next trading day is expected to be 17.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.52.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Franklin Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Franklin Lifesmart's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Franklin Lifesmart Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Franklin Lifesmart | Franklin Lifesmart Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Franklin Lifesmart Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Franklin Lifesmart's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Franklin Lifesmart's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.22 and 18.56, respectively. We have considered Franklin Lifesmart's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Franklin Lifesmart mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Franklin Lifesmart mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.9713 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0137 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.092 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0053 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.52 |
Predictive Modules for Franklin Lifesmart
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Franklin Lifesmart 2050. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Franklin Lifesmart After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Franklin Lifesmart at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Franklin Lifesmart or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Franklin Lifesmart, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Franklin Lifesmart Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Franklin Lifesmart's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Franklin Lifesmart's historical news coverage. Franklin Lifesmart's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.00 and 0.67, respectively. We have considered Franklin Lifesmart's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Franklin Lifesmart is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Franklin Lifesmart 2050 is based on 3 months time horizon.
Franklin Lifesmart Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Franklin Lifesmart is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Franklin Lifesmart backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Franklin Lifesmart, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 0.67 | 2.39 | 0.28 | 3 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In about 3 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
17.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
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Franklin Lifesmart Hype Timeline
Franklin Lifesmart 2050 is currently traded for 17.89. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 2.39, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.28. Franklin is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 2.25%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.08%. %. The volatility of related hype on Franklin Lifesmart is about 19.48%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 18.17. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 3 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Franklin Lifesmart to cross-verify your projections.Franklin Lifesmart Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Franklin Lifesmart's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Franklin Lifesmart's future price movements. Getting to know how Franklin Lifesmart's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Franklin Lifesmart may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PBXIX | Rationalpier 88 Convertible | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.37 | (0.17) | 0.64 | (0.72) | 1.79 | |
| LCFYX | Lord Abbett Convertible | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.91 | 0.01 | 1.95 | (1.78) | 3.81 | |
| VAADX | Virtus Convertible | (0.24) | 3 per month | 0.62 | 0.09 | 1.65 | (1.59) | 12.63 | |
| FSAWX | Fidelity Sai Convertible | (0.01) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.50) | 0.19 | (0.09) | 1.03 | |
| PCNTX | Putnam Convertible Securities | 20.89 | 2 per month | 0.87 | 0.02 | 1.58 | (1.58) | 5.73 | |
| ARBOX | Absolute Convertible Arbitrage | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 0.09 | (0.09) | 3.52 |
Other Forecasting Options for Franklin Lifesmart
For every potential investor in Franklin, whether a beginner or expert, Franklin Lifesmart's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Franklin Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Franklin. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Franklin Lifesmart's price trends.Franklin Lifesmart Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Franklin Lifesmart mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Franklin Lifesmart could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Franklin Lifesmart by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Franklin Lifesmart Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Franklin Lifesmart mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Franklin Lifesmart shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Franklin Lifesmart mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Franklin Lifesmart 2050 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 17.89 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 17.89 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.05 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.1 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 58.82 |
Franklin Lifesmart Risk Indicators
The analysis of Franklin Lifesmart's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Franklin Lifesmart's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting franklin mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5145 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.625 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.6704 | |||
| Variance | 0.4494 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.6296 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.3906 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.53) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Franklin Lifesmart
The number of cover stories for Franklin Lifesmart depends on current market conditions and Franklin Lifesmart's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Franklin Lifesmart is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Franklin Lifesmart's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Franklin Mutual Fund
Franklin Lifesmart financial ratios help investors to determine whether Franklin Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Franklin with respect to the benefits of owning Franklin Lifesmart security.
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