MicroSectors Travel Etf Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| FLYU Etf | USD 48.20 0.00 0.00% |
MicroSectors Etf outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength momentum indicator of MicroSectors Travel's share price is approaching 44. This usually indicates that the etf is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling MicroSectors Travel, making its price go up or down. Momentum 44
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using MicroSectors Travel hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of MicroSectors Travel 3X from the perspective of MicroSectors Travel response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MicroSectors Travel 3X on the next trading day is expected to be 48.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.57 and the sum of the absolute errors of 94.42. MicroSectors Travel after-hype prediction price | USD 48.2 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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MicroSectors Travel Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine MicroSectors price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for MicroSectors using various technical indicators. When you analyze MicroSectors charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
MicroSectors Travel Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MicroSectors Travel 3X on the next trading day is expected to be 48.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.57, mean absolute percentage error of 3.84, and the sum of the absolute errors of 94.42.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MicroSectors Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MicroSectors Travel's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
MicroSectors Travel Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest MicroSectors Travel | MicroSectors Travel Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
MicroSectors Travel Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting MicroSectors Travel's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. MicroSectors Travel's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 44.29 and 52.12, respectively. We have considered MicroSectors Travel's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MicroSectors Travel etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MicroSectors Travel etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.6176 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0187 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.5737 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0309 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 94.423 |
Predictive Modules for MicroSectors Travel
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MicroSectors Travel. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of MicroSectors Travel's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
MicroSectors Travel After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of MicroSectors Travel at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in MicroSectors Travel or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of MicroSectors Travel, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
MicroSectors Travel Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting MicroSectors Travel's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on MicroSectors Travel's historical news coverage. MicroSectors Travel's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 44.04 and 52.36, respectively. We have considered MicroSectors Travel's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
MicroSectors Travel is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of MicroSectors Travel is based on 3 months time horizon.
MicroSectors Travel Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as MicroSectors Travel is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading MicroSectors Travel backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with MicroSectors Travel, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.18 | 3.91 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
48.20 | 48.20 | 0.00 |
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MicroSectors Travel Hype Timeline
MicroSectors Travel is currently traded for 48.20. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.03. MicroSectors is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.18%. %. The volatility of related hype on MicroSectors Travel is about 2773.05%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 48.23. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MicroSectors Travel to cross-verify your projections.MicroSectors Travel Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to MicroSectors Travel's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict MicroSectors Travel's future price movements. Getting to know how MicroSectors Travel's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how MicroSectors Travel may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FDTS | First Trust Developed | 1.14 | 1 per month | 0.50 | 0.20 | 1.50 | (1.12) | 3.46 | |
| BDVG | Litman Gregory Funds | (0.03) | 3 per month | 0.53 | (0) | 1.04 | (0.86) | 2.91 | |
| EBIT | Harbor ETF Trust | 0.11 | 9 per month | 0.78 | 0.04 | 2.22 | (1.60) | 4.82 | |
| JHDV | John Hancock Exchange | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.80 | 0.01 | 0.97 | (1.28) | 2.97 | |
| NBCE | Neuberger Berman ETF | 0.19 | 1 per month | 0.81 | 0.07 | 1.57 | (1.34) | 3.10 | |
| CLIX | ProShares Long OnlineShort | 0.23 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 1.89 | (2.08) | 4.29 | |
| FLJJ | AIM ETF Products | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.14 | (0.05) | 0.38 | (0.35) | 1.48 | |
| LBO | WHITEWOLF Publicly Listed | (0.01) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.06 | (1.62) | 5.60 | |
| EUDV | ProShares MSCI Europe | (0.22) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 1.17 | (1.33) | 3.38 | |
| RHTX | Starboard Investment Trust | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.25 | 0.05 | 1.41 | (1.41) | 3.25 |
Other Forecasting Options for MicroSectors Travel
For every potential investor in MicroSectors, whether a beginner or expert, MicroSectors Travel's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. MicroSectors Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in MicroSectors. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying MicroSectors Travel's price trends.MicroSectors Travel Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with MicroSectors Travel etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of MicroSectors Travel could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing MicroSectors Travel by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MicroSectors Travel Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how MicroSectors Travel etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading MicroSectors Travel shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying MicroSectors Travel etf market strength indicators, traders can identify MicroSectors Travel 3X entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 4.0E-4 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 48.21 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 48.21 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 0.02 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.01) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 44.1 |
MicroSectors Travel Risk Indicators
The analysis of MicroSectors Travel's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MicroSectors Travel's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting microsectors etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.28 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.19 | |||
| Variance | 17.56 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for MicroSectors Travel
The number of cover stories for MicroSectors Travel depends on current market conditions and MicroSectors Travel's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that MicroSectors Travel is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about MicroSectors Travel's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MicroSectors Travel to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Stocks Directory module to find actively traded stocks across global markets.
The market value of MicroSectors Travel is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of MicroSectors that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of MicroSectors Travel's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is MicroSectors Travel's true underlying value. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. Because MicroSectors Travel's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect MicroSectors Travel's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between MicroSectors Travel's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if MicroSectors Travel is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Meanwhile, MicroSectors Travel's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.