Focus Graphite Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| FMS Stock | CAD 0.36 0.02 5.26% |
Focus Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength momentum indicator of Focus Graphite's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Wall Street Target Price 0.27 |
Using Focus Graphite hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Focus Graphite from the perspective of Focus Graphite response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Focus Graphite on the next trading day is expected to be 0.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.05. Focus Graphite after-hype prediction price | CAD 0.36 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Focus |
Focus Graphite Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Focus price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Focus using various technical indicators. When you analyze Focus charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Focus Graphite Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 13th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Focus Graphite on the next trading day is expected to be 0.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0006, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.05.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Focus Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Focus Graphite's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Focus Graphite Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Focus Graphite | Focus Graphite Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Focus Graphite Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Focus Graphite's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Focus Graphite's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 6.52, respectively. We have considered Focus Graphite's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Focus Graphite stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Focus Graphite stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.7477 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0015 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0172 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0418 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.05 |
Predictive Modules for Focus Graphite
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Focus Graphite. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Focus Graphite After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Focus Graphite at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Focus Graphite or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Focus Graphite, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Focus Graphite Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Focus Graphite's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Focus Graphite's historical news coverage. Focus Graphite's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.02 and 6.52, respectively. We have considered Focus Graphite's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Focus Graphite is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Focus Graphite is based on 3 months time horizon.
Focus Graphite Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Focus Graphite is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Focus Graphite backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Focus Graphite, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.18 | 6.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
0.36 | 0.36 | 0.00 |
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Focus Graphite Hype Timeline
Focus Graphite is currently traded for 0.36on TSX Venture Exchange of Canada. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Focus is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.18%. %. The volatility of related hype on Focus Graphite is about 82133.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.36. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.2. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Focus Graphite recorded a loss per share of 0.03. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1:10 split on the 17th of June 2022. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Focus Graphite to cross-verify your projections.Focus Graphite Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Focus Graphite's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Focus Graphite's future price movements. Getting to know how Focus Graphite's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Focus Graphite may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NKL | Nickel 28 Capital | 0.01 | 6 per month | 2.35 | 0.18 | 6.25 | (4.55) | 19.39 | |
| NBM | Neo Battery Materials | 0.05 | 5 per month | 4.74 | 0.06 | 11.36 | (9.46) | 39.86 | |
| SALT | Atlas Salt | (0.03) | 4 per month | 3.58 | 0.15 | 9.38 | (6.35) | 24.42 | |
| NKG | Nevada King Gold | 0.00 | 3 per month | 3.89 | 0.10 | 11.11 | (7.14) | 38.10 | |
| LEM | Leading Edge Materials | (0.02) | 3 per month | 3.94 | 0.11 | 9.52 | (7.69) | 32.71 | |
| OGD | Orbit Garant Drilling | 0.03 | 3 per month | 4.21 | 0.03 | 7.50 | (6.82) | 22.53 | |
| SLG | PetroTal Corp | 0.02 | 3 per month | 4.19 | 0.25 | 17.05 | (7.50) | 78.68 | |
| SYH | Skyharbour Resources | 0.00 | 8 per month | 3.70 | 0.12 | 9.80 | (7.27) | 52.77 |
Other Forecasting Options for Focus Graphite
For every potential investor in Focus, whether a beginner or expert, Focus Graphite's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Focus Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Focus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Focus Graphite's price trends.Focus Graphite Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Focus Graphite stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Focus Graphite could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Focus Graphite by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Focus Graphite Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Focus Graphite stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Focus Graphite shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Focus Graphite stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Focus Graphite entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 45694.26 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.50) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.95 | |||
| Day Median Price | 0.37 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 0.37 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.02) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.02) |
Focus Graphite Risk Indicators
The analysis of Focus Graphite's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Focus Graphite's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting focus stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.37 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.18 | |||
| Variance | 38.15 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Focus Graphite
The number of cover stories for Focus Graphite depends on current market conditions and Focus Graphite's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Focus Graphite is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Focus Graphite's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Focus Stock Analysis
When running Focus Graphite's price analysis, check to measure Focus Graphite's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Focus Graphite is operating at the current time. Most of Focus Graphite's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Focus Graphite's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Focus Graphite's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Focus Graphite to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.