Foremost Lithium Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| FMST Stock | 2.18 0.10 4.39% |
Foremost Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Foremost Lithium's share price is approaching 41. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Foremost Lithium, making its price go up or down. Momentum 41
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Wall Street Target Price 5.46 |
Using Foremost Lithium hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Foremost Lithium Resource from the perspective of Foremost Lithium response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Foremost Relative Strength Index
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Foremost Lithium Resource on the next trading day is expected to be 2.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.22.Foremost Lithium Resource Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Foremost Lithium's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Foremost. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Foremost can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Foremost Lithium Resource. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Foremost Lithium's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Foremost Lithium.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Foremost Lithium Resource on the next trading day is expected to be 2.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.22. Foremost Lithium after-hype prediction price | USD 2.06 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Foremost Lithium to cross-verify your projections. Foremost Lithium Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Foremost price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Foremost using various technical indicators. When you analyze Foremost charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Foremost Lithium Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Foremost Lithium Resource on the next trading day is expected to be 2.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.22.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Foremost Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Foremost Lithium's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Foremost Lithium Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Foremost Lithium | Foremost Lithium Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Foremost Lithium Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Foremost Lithium's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Foremost Lithium's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 7.36, respectively. We have considered Foremost Lithium's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Foremost Lithium stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Foremost Lithium stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.7074 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0227 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1224 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.048 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.22 |
Predictive Modules for Foremost Lithium
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Foremost Lithium Resource. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Foremost Lithium's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Foremost Lithium After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Foremost Lithium at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Foremost Lithium or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Foremost Lithium, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Foremost Lithium Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Foremost Lithium's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Foremost Lithium's historical news coverage. Foremost Lithium's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.10 and 7.19, respectively. We have considered Foremost Lithium's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Foremost Lithium is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Foremost Lithium Resource is based on 3 months time horizon.
Foremost Lithium Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Foremost Lithium is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Foremost Lithium backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Foremost Lithium, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.50 | 5.13 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 5 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
2.18 | 2.06 | 5.50 |
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Foremost Lithium Hype Timeline
Foremost Lithium Resource is currently traded for 2.18. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.12, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. Foremost is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 2.06. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -5.5%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.5%. The volatility of related hype on Foremost Lithium is about 7328.57%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.15. About 22.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.35. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Foremost Lithium Resource recorded a loss per share of 0.2. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1:50 split on the 5th of July 2023. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Foremost Lithium to cross-verify your projections.Foremost Lithium Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Foremost Lithium's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Foremost Lithium's future price movements. Getting to know how Foremost Lithium's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Foremost Lithium may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LITM | Snow Lake Resources | (0.38) | 10 per month | 6.32 | (0.01) | 11.50 | (9.95) | 25.79 | |
| TSE | Trinseo SA | 0.01 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 14.58 | (11.46) | 53.43 | |
| ODVWZ | Osisko Development Corp | 0.01 | 8 per month | 12.12 | 0.05 | 24.14 | (21.87) | 91.11 | |
| AUST | Austin Gold Corp | 0.02 | 9 per month | 4.65 | 0.06 | 11.38 | (8.74) | 25.02 | |
| NWGL | Nature Wood Group | (0.08) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 8.40 | (7.75) | 44.84 | |
| SNES | SenesTech | (0.08) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 6.27 | (7.22) | 19.56 | |
| XPL | Solitario Exploration Royalty | 0.08 | 29 per month | 3.07 | 0.01 | 6.06 | (4.84) | 12.16 | |
| YMAT | J Star Holding Co | (0.06) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 9.64 | (10.71) | 33.67 | |
| STAI | ScanTech AI Systems | (0.15) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 12.65 | (13.75) | 53.71 |
Other Forecasting Options for Foremost Lithium
For every potential investor in Foremost, whether a beginner or expert, Foremost Lithium's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Foremost Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Foremost. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Foremost Lithium's price trends.Foremost Lithium Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Foremost Lithium stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Foremost Lithium could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Foremost Lithium by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Foremost Lithium Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Foremost Lithium stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Foremost Lithium shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Foremost Lithium stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Foremost Lithium Resource entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.96 | |||
| Day Median Price | 2.18 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 2.18 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.05) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.10) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 41.88 |
Foremost Lithium Risk Indicators
The analysis of Foremost Lithium's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Foremost Lithium's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting foremost stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.3 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.19 | |||
| Variance | 26.95 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Foremost Lithium
The number of cover stories for Foremost Lithium depends on current market conditions and Foremost Lithium's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Foremost Lithium is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Foremost Lithium's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Foremost Lithium Short Properties
Foremost Lithium's future price predictability will typically decrease when Foremost Lithium's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Foremost Lithium Resource often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Foremost Lithium's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Foremost Lithium's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 7.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5 M |
Additional Tools for Foremost Stock Analysis
When running Foremost Lithium's price analysis, check to measure Foremost Lithium's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Foremost Lithium is operating at the current time. Most of Foremost Lithium's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Foremost Lithium's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Foremost Lithium's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Foremost Lithium to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.