Amicus Therapeutics Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| FOLD Stock | USD 14.29 0.02 0.14% |
Amicus Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Amicus Therapeutics stock prices and determine the direction of Amicus Therapeutics's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Amicus Therapeutics' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time The value of RSI of Amicus Therapeutics' share price is above 80 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly overbought by investors. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 82
Buy Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Amicus Therapeutics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Amicus Therapeutics from the perspective of Amicus Therapeutics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Amicus Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 14.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.54 and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.65. Amicus Therapeutics after-hype prediction price | USD 14.29 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amicus Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Amicus Stock refer to our How to Trade Amicus Stock guide.Amicus Therapeutics Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Amicus price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Amicus using various technical indicators. When you analyze Amicus charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Amicus Therapeutics Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Amicus Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 14.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.54, mean absolute percentage error of 0.49, and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.65.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Amicus Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Amicus Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Amicus Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Amicus Therapeutics | Amicus Therapeutics Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Amicus Therapeutics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Amicus Therapeutics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Amicus Therapeutics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.03 and 18.27, respectively. We have considered Amicus Therapeutics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Amicus Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Amicus Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.2293 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5427 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.049 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 33.646 |
Predictive Modules for Amicus Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Amicus Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Amicus Therapeutics After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Amicus Therapeutics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Amicus Therapeutics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Amicus Therapeutics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Amicus Therapeutics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Amicus Therapeutics' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Amicus Therapeutics' historical news coverage. Amicus Therapeutics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.20 and 18.38, respectively. We have considered Amicus Therapeutics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Amicus Therapeutics is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Amicus Therapeutics is based on 3 months time horizon.
Amicus Therapeutics Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Amicus Therapeutics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Amicus Therapeutics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Amicus Therapeutics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.86 | 4.12 | 0.18 | 0.11 | 9 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
14.29 | 14.29 | 0.00 |
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Amicus Therapeutics Hype Timeline
Amicus Therapeutics is currently traded for 14.29. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.18, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.11. Amicus is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.86%. %. The volatility of related hype on Amicus Therapeutics is about 3193.8%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 14.18. About 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.04. Amicus Therapeutics last dividend was issued on the 31st of August 2009. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amicus Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Amicus Stock refer to our How to Trade Amicus Stock guide.Amicus Therapeutics Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Amicus Therapeutics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Amicus Therapeutics' future price movements. Getting to know how Amicus Therapeutics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Amicus Therapeutics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| IDYA | Ideaya Biosciences | 0.21 | 5 per month | 1.95 | 0.08 | 4.86 | (3.68) | 15.68 | |
| SRRK | Scholar Rock Holding | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.46 | 0.15 | 5.92 | (4.21) | 31.68 | |
| ADPT | Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.88 | 0.04 | 9.94 | (4.95) | 29.55 | |
| ARQT | Arcutis Biotherapeutics | (0.44) | 10 per month | 2.16 | 0.08 | 6.75 | (4.02) | 32.59 | |
| CDTX | Cidara Therapeutics | 0.21 | 15 per month | 0.00 | 0.14 | 4.24 | (2.28) | 105.72 | |
| MLYS | Mineralys Therapeutics Common | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 5.87 | (6.28) | 24.81 | |
| KNSA | Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals | 0.04 | 18 per month | 2.11 | 0.04 | 2.95 | (3.74) | 10.07 | |
| TARS | Tarsus Pharmaceuticals | 0.21 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.78 | (3.41) | 10.59 | |
| LEGN | Legend Biotech Corp | (1.30) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 3.83 | (6.84) | 19.65 | |
| CPRX | Catalyst Pharmaceuticals | (0.22) | 7 per month | 1.58 | 0.06 | 3.00 | (3.08) | 10.89 |
Other Forecasting Options for Amicus Therapeutics
For every potential investor in Amicus, whether a beginner or expert, Amicus Therapeutics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Amicus Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Amicus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Amicus Therapeutics' price trends.Amicus Therapeutics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Amicus Therapeutics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Amicus Therapeutics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Amicus Therapeutics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Amicus Therapeutics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Amicus Therapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Amicus Therapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Amicus Therapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Amicus Therapeutics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Amicus Therapeutics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Amicus Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Amicus Therapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting amicus stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.63 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.09 | |||
| Variance | 16.69 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.46 | |||
| Semi Variance | (0.19) | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.15) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Amicus Therapeutics
The number of cover stories for Amicus Therapeutics depends on current market conditions and Amicus Therapeutics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Amicus Therapeutics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Amicus Therapeutics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Amicus Therapeutics Short Properties
Amicus Therapeutics' future price predictability will typically decrease when Amicus Therapeutics' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Amicus Therapeutics often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Amicus Therapeutics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Amicus Therapeutics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 304.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 249.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amicus Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Amicus Stock refer to our How to Trade Amicus Stock guide.You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Amicus Therapeutics. If investors know Amicus will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Amicus Therapeutics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Amicus Therapeutics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Amicus that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Amicus Therapeutics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Amicus Therapeutics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Amicus Therapeutics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Amicus Therapeutics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Amicus Therapeutics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Amicus Therapeutics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Amicus Therapeutics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.