Forward Industries Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| FORDDelisted Stock | USD 11.71 0.07 0.60% |
Forward Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Forward Industries stock prices and determine the direction of Forward Industries's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Forward Industries' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the value of rsi of Forward Industries' share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Forward Industries hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Forward Industries from the perspective of Forward Industries response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Forward Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 11.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.48. Forward Industries after-hype prediction price | USD 11.49 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as delisted stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Forward |
Forward Industries Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Forward price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Forward using various technical indicators. When you analyze Forward charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Forward Industries Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Forward Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 11.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27, mean absolute percentage error of 0.35, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.48.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Forward Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Forward Industries' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Forward Industries Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Forward Industries | Forward Industries Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forward Industries Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Forward Industries' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Forward Industries' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.33 and 15.09, respectively. We have considered Forward Industries' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Forward Industries stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Forward Industries stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.2314 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0447 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2747 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0251 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 16.48 |
Predictive Modules for Forward Industries
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Forward Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Forward Industries After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Forward Industries at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Forward Industries or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Forward Industries, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Forward Industries Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Forward Industries' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Forward Industries' historical news coverage. Forward Industries' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8.11 and 14.87, respectively. We have considered Forward Industries' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Forward Industries is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Forward Industries is based on 3 months time horizon.
Forward Industries Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Forward Industries is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Forward Industries backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Delisted Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Forward Industries, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.27 | 3.38 | 0.22 | 0.08 | 7 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
11.71 | 11.49 | 1.88 |
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Forward Industries Hype Timeline
Forward Industries is currently traded for 11.71. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.22, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.08. Forward is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 11.49. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -1.88%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.27%. The volatility of related hype on Forward Industries is about 1141.89%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.79. About 33.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company recorded a loss per share of 5.11. Forward Industries had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:10 split on the 18th of June 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Forward Industries to cross-verify your projections.Forward Industries Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Forward Industries' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Forward Industries' future price movements. Getting to know how Forward Industries' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Forward Industries may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ROLR | High Roller Technologies | 0.23 | 9 per month | 10.03 | 0.10 | 17.33 | (17.50) | 472.27 | |
| ARKR | Ark Restaurants Corp | 0.03 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 3.62 | (3.81) | 12.34 | |
| BGI | Birks Group | (0.01) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.41 | (4.44) | 27.29 | |
| SBDS | SBDS | 2.81 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 14.90 | (14.62) | 64.32 | |
| JBDI | JBDI Holdings Limited | 0.02 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 12.20 | (9.41) | 24.94 | |
| MGIH | Millennium Group International | 0.08 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 9.93 | (8.55) | 42.24 | |
| MOGU | MOGU Inc | (0.18) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 6.37 | (5.81) | 22.95 | |
| AIIO | Roboai Inc | (0.05) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 8.62 | (15.00) | 75.86 | |
| EVGO | Evgo Inc | 0.02 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 5.84 | (5.71) | 16.24 | |
| MI | NFT Limited | 0.01 | 10 per month | 3.20 | 0.02 | 6.50 | (6.90) | 23.69 |
Other Forecasting Options for Forward Industries
For every potential investor in Forward, whether a beginner or expert, Forward Industries' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Forward Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Forward. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Forward Industries' price trends.Forward Industries Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Forward Industries stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Forward Industries could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Forward Industries by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Forward Industries Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Forward Industries stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Forward Industries shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Forward Industries stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Forward Industries entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Forward Industries Risk Indicators
The analysis of Forward Industries' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Forward Industries' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting forward stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.66 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.94 | |||
| Variance | 24.42 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Forward Industries
The number of cover stories for Forward Industries depends on current market conditions and Forward Industries' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Forward Industries is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Forward Industries' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Forward Industries Short Properties
Forward Industries' future price predictability will typically decrease when Forward Industries' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Forward Industries often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Forward Industries' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Forward Industries' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Forward Industries to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Forward Stock refer to our How to Trade Forward Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.
Other Consideration for investing in Forward Stock
If you are still planning to invest in Forward Industries check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Forward Industries' history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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