Forum Real Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| FORFX Fund | 9.72 0.01 0.10% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Forum Real Estate on the next trading day is expected to be 9.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.32. Forum Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Forum Real's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the mutual fund is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Forum Real hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Forum Real Estate from the perspective of Forum Real response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Forum Real Estate on the next trading day is expected to be 9.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.32. Forum Real after-hype prediction price | USD 9.72 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Forum |
Forum Real Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Forum price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Forum using various technical indicators. When you analyze Forum charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Forum Real Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Forum Real Estate on the next trading day is expected to be 9.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.000092, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.32.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Forum Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Forum Real's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Forum Real Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
Forum Real Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Forum Real's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Forum Real's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.63 and 9.81, respectively. We have considered Forum Real's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Forum Real mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Forum Real mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 108.8146 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0046 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0052 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 5.0E-4 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.32 |
Predictive Modules for Forum Real
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Forum Real Estate. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Forum Real Estimiated After-Hype Price Prediction Volatility
As far as predicting the price of Forum Real at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Forum Real or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Forum Real, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Forum Real Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Forum Real is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Forum Real backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Forum Real, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 1.02 | 2 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
9.72 | 9.72 | 0.00 |
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Forum Real Hype Timeline
Forum Real Estate is currently traded for 9.72. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -1.02. Forum is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.05%. %. The volatility of related hype on Forum Real is about 0.44%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.70. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out fundamental analysis of Forum Real to check your projections.Forum Real Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Forum Real's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Forum Real's future price movements. Getting to know how Forum Real's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Forum Real may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HGHYX | The Hartford Healthcare | 0.41 | 2 per month | 0.32 | 0.12 | 1.91 | (0.98) | 3.95 | |
| HCPIX | Health Care Ultrasector | (110.87) | 3 per month | 0.84 | 0.09 | 2.94 | (1.48) | 6.65 | |
| DLRHX | Delaware Healthcare Fund | (0.13) | 1 per month | 0.36 | 0.16 | 2.09 | (1.15) | 7.60 | |
| BHSRX | Blackrock Health Sciences | 8.22 | 8 per month | 0.29 | 0.14 | 1.82 | (1.00) | 4.84 | |
| ETAHX | Eventide Healthcare Life | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.74 | 0.15 | 3.27 | (1.61) | 5.64 |
Other Forecasting Options for Forum Real
For every potential investor in Forum, whether a beginner or expert, Forum Real's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Forum Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Forum. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Forum Real's price trends.Forum Real Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Forum Real mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Forum Real could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Forum Real by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Forum Real Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Forum Real mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Forum Real shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Forum Real mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Forum Real Estate entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 9.72 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 9.72 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.005 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.01 |
Forum Real Risk Indicators
The analysis of Forum Real's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Forum Real's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting forum mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.064 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.0863 | |||
| Variance | 0.0074 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Forum Real
The number of cover stories for Forum Real depends on current market conditions and Forum Real's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Forum Real is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Forum Real's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Forum Mutual Fund
Forum Real financial ratios help investors to determine whether Forum Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Forum with respect to the benefits of owning Forum Real security.
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