Forth Public Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

FORTH Stock  THB 6.05  0.15  2.42%   
Forth Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Forth Public stock prices and determine the direction of Forth Public's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Forth Public's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of now, the value of RSI of Forth Public's share price is approaching 46. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Forth Public, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 46

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Forth Public's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Forth Public, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Forth Public hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Forth Public from the perspective of Forth Public response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Forth Public on the next trading day is expected to be 5.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.21.

Forth Public after-hype prediction price

    
  THB 6.05  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Forth Public to cross-verify your projections.

Forth Public Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Forth price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Forth using various technical indicators. When you analyze Forth charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Forth Public price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Forth Public Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 26th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Forth Public on the next trading day is expected to be 5.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.21.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Forth Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Forth Public's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Forth Public Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Forth Public  Forth Public Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Forth Public Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Forth Public's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Forth Public's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.10 and 8.41, respectively. We have considered Forth Public's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
6.05
5.76
Expected Value
8.41
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Forth Public stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Forth Public stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.4711
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2329
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0372
SAESum of the absolute errors14.2063
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Forth Public historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Forth Public

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Forth Public. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
3.396.058.71
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
2.545.207.86
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Forth Public. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Forth Public's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Forth Public's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Forth Public.

Forth Public After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Forth Public at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Forth Public or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Forth Public, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Forth Public Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Forth Public's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Forth Public's historical news coverage. Forth Public's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3.39 and 8.71, respectively. We have considered Forth Public's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
6.05
6.05
After-hype Price
8.71
Upside
Forth Public is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Forth Public is based on 3 months time horizon.

Forth Public Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Forth Public is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Forth Public backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Forth Public, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.22 
2.66
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
6.05
6.05
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Forth Public Hype Timeline

Forth Public is currently traded for 6.05on Thailand Exchange of Thailand. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Forth is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.22%. %. The volatility of related hype on Forth Public is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.05. About 63.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company last dividend was issued on the 26th of August 2022. Forth Public had 2:1 split on the 8th of July 2008. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Forth Public to cross-verify your projections.

Forth Public Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Forth Public's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Forth Public's future price movements. Getting to know how Forth Public's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Forth Public may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
NEXNex Point Public 0.00 0 per month 2.31  0.04  6.60 (4.42) 17.90 
SISSiS Distribution Public 0.00 0 per month 1.28  0  3.61 (3.00) 9.68 
SAMARTSamart Public 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.05) 3.74 (2.75) 11.56 
METCOMuramoto Electron Public 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.23  1.74 (0.43) 13.09 
AITAdvanced Information Technology 0.00 0 per month 0.18 (0.05) 0.81 (0.41) 2.44 
MEBMEB Corp PCL 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.23) 1.81 (2.76) 8.52 
SKYSky ICT Public 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.16) 2.91 (3.20) 9.42 
HUMANHumanica Public 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.12) 3.81 (2.01) 9.06 
DTCENTDTC Enterprise PCL 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.14) 2.06 (3.16) 6.43 
DITTODitto Public 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.10) 2.75 (2.65) 12.74 

Other Forecasting Options for Forth Public

For every potential investor in Forth, whether a beginner or expert, Forth Public's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Forth Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Forth. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Forth Public's price trends.

Forth Public Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Forth Public stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Forth Public could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Forth Public by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Forth Public Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Forth Public stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Forth Public shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Forth Public stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Forth Public entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Forth Public Risk Indicators

The analysis of Forth Public's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Forth Public's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting forth stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Forth Public

The number of cover stories for Forth Public depends on current market conditions and Forth Public's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Forth Public is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Forth Public's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Other Information on Investing in Forth Stock

Forth Public financial ratios help investors to determine whether Forth Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Forth with respect to the benefits of owning Forth Public security.