Formula Systems Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

FORTY Stock  USD 163.27  0.00  0.00%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Formula Systems 1985 on the next trading day is expected to be 172.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.61 and the sum of the absolute errors of 342.29. Formula Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Formula Systems' share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Formula Systems' future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Formula Systems 1985, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Formula Systems' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.21)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.113
Using Formula Systems hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Formula Systems 1985 from the perspective of Formula Systems response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Formula Systems 1985 on the next trading day is expected to be 172.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.61 and the sum of the absolute errors of 342.29.

Formula Systems after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 166.31  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Formula Systems to cross-verify your projections.

Formula Systems Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Formula price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Formula using various technical indicators. When you analyze Formula charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Formula Systems price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Formula Systems Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Formula Systems 1985 on the next trading day is expected to be 172.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.61, mean absolute percentage error of 58.92, and the sum of the absolute errors of 342.29.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Formula Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Formula Systems' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Formula Systems Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Formula SystemsFormula Systems Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Formula Systems Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Formula Systems' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Formula Systems' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 167.96 and 177.58, respectively. We have considered Formula Systems' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
163.27
167.96
Downside
172.77
Expected Value
177.58
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Formula Systems stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Formula Systems stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria122.1866
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation5.6112
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0373
SAESum of the absolute errors342.285
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Formula Systems 1985 historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Formula Systems

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Formula Systems 1985. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Formula Systems' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
161.50166.31171.12
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
127.84132.65179.60
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
127.19155.93184.67
Details

Formula Systems After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Formula Systems at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Formula Systems or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Formula Systems, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Formula Systems Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Formula Systems' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Formula Systems' historical news coverage. Formula Systems' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 161.50 and 171.12, respectively. We have considered Formula Systems' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
163.27
161.50
Downside
166.31
After-hype Price
171.12
Upside
Formula Systems is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Formula Systems 1985 is based on 3 months time horizon.

Formula Systems Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Formula Systems is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Formula Systems backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Formula Systems, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.52 
4.81
  3.04 
  0.05 
3 Events / Month
8 Events / Month
In about 3 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
163.27
166.31
1.86 
82.22  
Notes

Formula Systems Hype Timeline

Formula Systems 1985 is currently traded for 163.27. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 3.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.05. Formula is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 166.31 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 82.22%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 1.86%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.52%. The volatility of related hype on Formula Systems is about 5465.91%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 163.22. The company reported the revenue of 2.76 B. Net Income was 193.79 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 720.23 M. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 3 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Formula Systems to cross-verify your projections.

Formula Systems Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Formula Systems' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Formula Systems' future price movements. Getting to know how Formula Systems' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Formula Systems may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
SPNSSapiens International 0.09 5 per month 0.00  0.12  0.28 (0.12) 32,006 
INODInnodata(0.14)11 per month 0.00 (0.08) 7.34 (7.73) 25.81 
AIC3 Ai Inc(0.55)5 per month 0.00 (0.17) 4.45 (4.92) 11.94 
DXCDXC Technology Co 0.66 8 per month 2.16  0.08  3.28 (3.49) 16.29 
BBAIBigBearai Holdings 0.15 9 per month 0.00 (0.05) 11.19 (8.09) 29.89 
CLVTCLARIVATE PLC(0.05)10 per month 0.00 (0.13) 4.12 (5.95) 13.67 
CNXCConcentrix(0.47)10 per month 3.08 (0.03) 4.06 (5.11) 14.93 
GLOBGlobant SA(0.54)9 per month 2.36  0.07  5.74 (3.42) 14.86 
ASGNASGN Inc(0.13)10 per month 2.10  0.04  4.36 (3.13) 11.39 
CSGSCSG Systems International 0.1 8 per month 0.00  0.13  1.29 (0.59) 15.33 

Other Forecasting Options for Formula Systems

For every potential investor in Formula, whether a beginner or expert, Formula Systems' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Formula Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Formula. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Formula Systems' price trends.

Formula Systems Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Formula Systems stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Formula Systems could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Formula Systems by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Formula Systems Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Formula Systems stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Formula Systems shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Formula Systems stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Formula Systems 1985 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Formula Systems Risk Indicators

The analysis of Formula Systems' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Formula Systems' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting formula stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Formula Systems

The number of cover stories for Formula Systems depends on current market conditions and Formula Systems' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Formula Systems is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Formula Systems' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Formula Systems Short Properties

Formula Systems' future price predictability will typically decrease when Formula Systems' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Formula Systems 1985 often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Formula Systems' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Formula Systems' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding15.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments563.2 M

Additional Tools for Formula Stock Analysis

When running Formula Systems' price analysis, check to measure Formula Systems' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Formula Systems is operating at the current time. Most of Formula Systems' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Formula Systems' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Formula Systems' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Formula Systems to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.