FP Newspapers Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

FP Stock  CAD 0.82  0.05  5.75%   
FP Newspapers Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength momentum indicator of FP Newspapers' share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of FP Newspapers' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of FP Newspapers and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from FP Newspapers' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with FP Newspapers, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting FP Newspapers' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.43)
Wall Street Target Price
4.5
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.30)
Using FP Newspapers hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of FP Newspapers from the perspective of FP Newspapers response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of FP Newspapers on the next trading day is expected to be 0.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.19.

FP Newspapers after-hype prediction price

    
  CAD 0.82  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of FP Newspapers to cross-verify your projections.

FP Newspapers Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine FP Newspapers price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for FP Newspapers using various technical indicators. When you analyze FP Newspapers charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Triple exponential smoothing for FP Newspapers - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When FP Newspapers prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in FP Newspapers price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of FP Newspapers.

FP Newspapers Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 18th of February 2026

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of FP Newspapers on the next trading day is expected to be 0.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.19.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict FP Newspapers Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that FP Newspapers' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

FP Newspapers Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest FP Newspapers  FP Newspapers Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

FP Newspapers Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting FP Newspapers' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. FP Newspapers' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 5.40, respectively. We have considered FP Newspapers' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0.82
0.82
Expected Value
5.40
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of FP Newspapers stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent FP Newspapers stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.006
MADMean absolute deviation0.0201
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0257
SAESum of the absolute errors1.1877
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past FP Newspapers observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older FP Newspapers observations.

Predictive Modules for FP Newspapers

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FP Newspapers. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.040.825.39
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.030.675.24
Details

FP Newspapers After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of FP Newspapers at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in FP Newspapers or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of FP Newspapers, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

FP Newspapers Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting FP Newspapers' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on FP Newspapers' historical news coverage. FP Newspapers' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.04 and 5.39, respectively. We have considered FP Newspapers' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
0.82
0.82
After-hype Price
5.39
Upside
FP Newspapers is abnormally volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of FP Newspapers is based on 3 months time horizon.

FP Newspapers Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as FP Newspapers is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading FP Newspapers backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with FP Newspapers, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.24 
4.57
 0.00  
  0.03 
1 Events / Month
2 Events / Month
Very soon
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
0.82
0.82
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

FP Newspapers Hype Timeline

FP Newspapers is currently traded for 0.82on TSX Venture Exchange of Canada. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.03. FP Newspapers is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.24%. %. The volatility of related hype on FP Newspapers is about 3449.06%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.85. About 30.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.8. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. FP Newspapers last dividend was issued on the 26th of June 2015. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be very soon.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of FP Newspapers to cross-verify your projections.

FP Newspapers Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to FP Newspapers' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict FP Newspapers' future price movements. Getting to know how FP Newspapers' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how FP Newspapers may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
GHGamehost 0.04 7 per month 0.82 (0.06) 1.73 (1.36) 5.91 
MDIMajor Drilling Group 0.23 5 per month 2.18  0.16  4.94 (4.31) 9.82 
PRUPerseus Mining(0.04)8 per month 3.35  0.08  4.73 (4.25) 18.09 
IPOInPlay Oil Corp 0.33 5 per month 1.46  0.11  3.25 (2.43) 7.16 
QRCQueens Road Capital 0.48 3 per month 0.68  0.28  4.36 (1.48) 13.23 
MLOMetalero Mining Corp 0.00 3 per month 3.02  0.09  8.33 (7.69) 24.36 
OGDOrbit Garant Drilling 0.05 5 per month 4.19  0.06  8.28 (6.82) 17.58 
BRAGBragg Gaming Group(0.03)5 per month 0.00 (0.04) 4.64 (5.29) 27.29 

Other Forecasting Options for FP Newspapers

For every potential investor in FP Newspapers, whether a beginner or expert, FP Newspapers' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. FP Newspapers Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in FP Newspapers. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying FP Newspapers' price trends.

FP Newspapers Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with FP Newspapers stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of FP Newspapers could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing FP Newspapers by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

FP Newspapers Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how FP Newspapers stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading FP Newspapers shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying FP Newspapers stock market strength indicators, traders can identify FP Newspapers entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

FP Newspapers Risk Indicators

The analysis of FP Newspapers' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in FP Newspapers' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fp newspapers stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for FP Newspapers

The number of cover stories for FP Newspapers depends on current market conditions and FP Newspapers' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that FP Newspapers is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about FP Newspapers' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Additional Tools for FP Newspapers Stock Analysis

When running FP Newspapers' price analysis, check to measure FP Newspapers' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy FP Newspapers is operating at the current time. Most of FP Newspapers' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of FP Newspapers' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move FP Newspapers' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of FP Newspapers to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.