CI Preferred Etf Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

FPR Etf  CAD 25.55  0.02  0.08%   
FPR Etf outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, The relative strength momentum indicator of CI Preferred's share price is at 53. This usually indicates that the etf is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling CI Preferred, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 53

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of CI Preferred's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with CI Preferred Share, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using CI Preferred hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of CI Preferred Share from the perspective of CI Preferred response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of CI Preferred Share on the next trading day is expected to be 25.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.39.

CI Preferred after-hype prediction price

    
  CAD 25.56  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CI Preferred to cross-verify your projections.

CI Preferred Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine FPR price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for FPR using various technical indicators. When you analyze FPR charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Triple exponential smoothing for CI Preferred - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When CI Preferred prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in CI Preferred price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of CI Preferred Share.

CI Preferred Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of CI Preferred Share on the next trading day is expected to be 25.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.39.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict FPR Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CI Preferred's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

CI Preferred Etf Forecast Pattern

Backtest CI Preferred  CI Preferred Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

CI Preferred Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting CI Preferred's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CI Preferred's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 25.08 and 26.07, respectively. We have considered CI Preferred's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
25.55
25.57
Expected Value
26.07
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CI Preferred etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CI Preferred etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.018
MADMean absolute deviation0.0899
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0036
SAESum of the absolute errors5.3915
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past CI Preferred observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older CI Preferred Share observations.

Predictive Modules for CI Preferred

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CI Preferred Share. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
25.0725.5626.05
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
24.9725.4625.95
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
25.3025.5525.80
Details

CI Preferred After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of CI Preferred at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in CI Preferred or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of CI Preferred, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

CI Preferred Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting CI Preferred's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on CI Preferred's historical news coverage. CI Preferred's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 25.07 and 26.05, respectively. We have considered CI Preferred's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
25.55
25.56
After-hype Price
26.05
Upside
CI Preferred is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of CI Preferred Share is based on 3 months time horizon.

CI Preferred Etf Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as CI Preferred is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading CI Preferred backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with CI Preferred, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.02 
0.49
  0.01 
 0.00  
5 Events / Month
2 Events / Month
In about 5 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
25.55
25.56
0.04 
158.06  
Notes

CI Preferred Hype Timeline

CI Preferred Share is currently traded for 25.55on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. FPR is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 25.56 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 158.06%. The price boost on the next news is estimated to be 0.04%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.02%. The volatility of related hype on CI Preferred is about 281.61%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 25.55. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be in about 5 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CI Preferred to cross-verify your projections.

CI Preferred Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to CI Preferred's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict CI Preferred's future price movements. Getting to know how CI Preferred's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how CI Preferred may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
CXFCI Canadian Convertible 0.01 4 per month 0.00 (0.10) 1.22 (1.11) 3.42 
HAFGlobal X Active 0.02 7 per month 0.46 (0.12) 0.73 (0.73) 2.31 
GDEPGuardian Directed Equity(0.07)1 per month 0.00 (0.17) 1.01 (0.84) 3.01 
XMSiShares Edge MSCI 0.30 5 per month 0.00 (0.12) 0.88 (0.77) 2.91 
DRMCDesjardins RI Canada(0.22)1 per month 0.53  0.11  1.33 (1.06) 4.39 
QQCIInvesco NASDAQ 100(0.06)4 per month 0.00 (0.13) 1.17 (1.33) 3.54 
BASEEvolve Global Materials(0.68)7 per month 0.70  0.25  2.26 (1.42) 4.99 
GCNSiShares ESG Conservative(0.65)2 per month 0.00 (0.16) 0.68 (0.62) 2.07 
CFLXCIBC Flexible Yield(0.38)14 per month 0.00 (0.56) 0.12 (0.18) 0.36 
EDGEEvolve Innovation Index(0.01)9 per month 0.00 (0.20) 1.29 (1.66) 4.50 

Other Forecasting Options for CI Preferred

For every potential investor in FPR, whether a beginner or expert, CI Preferred's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. FPR Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in FPR. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CI Preferred's price trends.

CI Preferred Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CI Preferred etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CI Preferred could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CI Preferred by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

CI Preferred Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CI Preferred etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CI Preferred shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CI Preferred etf market strength indicators, traders can identify CI Preferred Share entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

CI Preferred Risk Indicators

The analysis of CI Preferred's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CI Preferred's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fpr etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for CI Preferred

The number of cover stories for CI Preferred depends on current market conditions and CI Preferred's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that CI Preferred is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about CI Preferred's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Other Information on Investing in FPR Etf

CI Preferred financial ratios help investors to determine whether FPR Etf is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in FPR with respect to the benefits of owning CI Preferred security.