First Republic OTC Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| FRCHL Stock | 0.0002 0.00 0.00% |
Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
It is a matter of debate whether otc price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of First Republic based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. Using First Republic hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of First Republic Bank from the perspective of First Republic response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of First Republic Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 0.0002 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.000013 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.0008. First Republic after-hype prediction price | USD 1.68E-4 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as otc price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
First |
First Republic Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine First price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First using various technical indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
First Republic Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of First Republic Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 0.0002 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.000013, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.0008.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First Republic's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
First Republic OTC Stock Forecast Pattern
First Republic Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting First Republic's OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. First Republic's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.000002 and 35.12, respectively. We have considered First Republic's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Republic otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Republic otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 94.1056 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.072 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.0E-4 |
Predictive Modules for First Republic
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Republic Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as First Republic. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against First Republic's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, First Republic's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in First Republic Bank.First Republic Estimiated After-Hype Price Prediction Volatility
As far as predicting the price of First Republic at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in First Republic or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of OTC Stock prices, such as prices of First Republic, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
First Republic OTC Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a OTC Stock such as First Republic is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading First Republic backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the OTC price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with First Republic, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
5.32 | 35.12 | 0.00 | 8.99 | 0 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
0.0002 | 0.0002 | 15.82 |
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First Republic Hype Timeline
First Republic Bank is currently traded for 0.0002. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -8.99. First is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 1.68E-4. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -15.82%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 5.32%. The volatility of related hype on First Republic is about 2078.11%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of -8.99. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Investing Opportunities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any otc stock could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in rate.First Republic Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to First Republic's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict First Republic's future price movements. Getting to know how First Republic's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how First Republic may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| WIRX | Wireless Xcessories Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| HOFT | Hooker Furniture | (10.28) | 2 per month | 2.02 | 0.22 | 4.90 | (3.41) | 14.96 | |
| TMHC | Taylor Morn Home | 0.12 | 9 per month | 1.46 | (0.03) | 3.92 | (2.73) | 10.34 | |
| MITN | AG Mortgage Investment | 0.02 | 5 per month | 0.38 | (0.07) | 0.51 | (0.39) | 4.69 | |
| NOBH | Nobility Homes | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.13 | (0) | 5.21 | (7.44) | 22.88 | |
| OMRX | Orthometrix | 0.00 | 1 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for First Republic
For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First Republic's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First Republic's price trends.First Republic Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with First Republic otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of First Republic could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing First Republic by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
First Republic Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how First Republic otc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading First Republic shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying First Republic otc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify First Republic Bank entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 2.0E-4 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 2.0E-4 |
First Republic Risk Indicators
The analysis of First Republic's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in First Republic's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting first otc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 14.21 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 35.12 | |||
| Variance | 1233.17 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for First Republic
The number of cover stories for First Republic depends on current market conditions and First Republic's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that First Republic is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about First Republic's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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