FRANKLIN SMALL-MID Mutual Fund Forward View

FRSGX Fund

USD 38.56 0.45 1.18%

FRANKLIN SMALL-MID's Naive Prediction forecast is computed from observed closing prices over the selected horizon. The accuracy statistics below distinguish a well-fitted model from one that is smoothing over meaningful price movement. The Naive Prediction model projects FRANKLIN SMALL-MID at 37.39 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. The Naive Prediction output reflects statistical model results and is provided for reference purposes.

A naive forecasting model for FRANKLIN SMALL-MID is a special case of the moving average where the smoothing period is one. The forecast for Franklin Small Mid Cap on a given trading day is simply the observed closing price of the previous period. Because it uses only a single lag, this model is limited to one-period-ahead forecasts.

Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 8th of May

Over a 90-day horizon, the Naive Prediction model forecasts FRANKLIN SMALL-MID at 37.39 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and sum of absolute errors of 25.66 .

This represents a very tight forecast — the model closely tracks FRANKLIN SMALL-MID's recent price behavior. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest FRANKLIN SMALL-MID

FRANKLIN SMALL-MID Price Prediction

Research Analysis

Forecasted Value

The next-day forecast range for FRANKLIN SMALL-MID defines statistically derived downside and upside boundaries based on model performance. The model places downside around 36.14 and upside around 38.64 for the next session. The moderate spread reflects defined uncertainty around the forecast.

Market Value

38.56

36.14

Downside

37.39

Expected Value

38.64

Upside

Target Odds

Above Odds

Below Odds

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the Naive Prediction model's error metrics for FRANKLIN SMALL-MID mutual fund. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.

AIC	Akaike Information Criteria	118.6229
Bias	Arithmetic mean of the errors	None
MAD	Mean absolute deviation	0.4139
MAPE	Mean absolute percentage error	0.0112
SAE	Sum of the absolute errors	25.663

The naive model produces a tight forecast range but offers no smoothing of noise or trend detection. It serves primarily as a baseline benchmark — if a more complex model cannot outperform the naive forecast, it may indicate that FRANKLIN SMALL-MID price movements are largely random over the selected horizon.

Other Forecasting Options for FRANKLIN SMALL-MID

Analyzing FRANKLIN SMALL-MID's price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in FRANKLIN SMALL-MID's chart signal overbought or oversold conditions.

FRANKLIN SMALL-MID Related Equities

These firms work in a similar space as FRANKLIN SMALL-MID within the Mid-Cap Growth space and serve as useful points for comparison. Growth rate gaps between FRANKLIN SMALL-MID and its peers often explain pricing differences in the market. Peer review is most informative when paired with absolute pricing and trend checks. This type of review is most informative when done often to track how positions shift over time.

Franklin Small Cap Artisan Mid Cap Artisan Mid Cap Baron Asset Fund Baron Asset Fund T Rowe Price The Hartford Midcap The Hartford Midcap American Beacon Small American Beacon Small American Airlines Group Alcoa Corp Apple Inc Best Buy Co Citigroup

Risk & Return

Correlation

FRANKLIN SMALL-MID Market Strength Events

For investors tracking Franklin Small Mid Cap, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of mutual fund behavior. When Rate of Change diverges from price direction, it often signals weakening momentum before a visible reversal in FRANKLIN SMALL-MID.

	Rate Of Daily Change	1.01
	Day Median Price	38.56
	Day Typical Price	38.56
	Price Action Indicator	0.23
	Period Momentum Indicator	0.45
	Relative Strength Index	57.37

FRANKLIN SMALL-MID Risk Indicators

Analyzing FRANKLIN SMALL-MID's basic risk indicators provides a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for franklin mutual fund. Expected shortfall estimates the average loss in the worst-case tail scenarios, going beyond what standard deviation alone captures for FRANKLIN SMALL-MID.

	Mean Deviation	1.03
	Semi Deviation	1.12
	Standard Deviation	1.3
	Variance	1.69
	Downside Variance	1.57
	Semi Variance	1.25
	Expected Short fall	-1.09

Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

	Naive Prediction
	Simple Exponential Smoothing
	Double Exponential Smoothing
	Triple Exponential Smoothing
	Simple Regression
	Polynomial Regression
	Simple Moving Average
	4 Period Moving Average
	8 Period Moving Average
	20 Period Moving Average