Freenet AG Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction

FRTAY Stock  USD 17.93  0.88  5.16%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of freenet AG on the next trading day is expected to be 17.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.96. Freenet Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Freenet AG is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of freenet AG value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Freenet AG Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of freenet AG on the next trading day is expected to be 17.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.96.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Freenet Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Freenet AG's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Freenet AG Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Backtest Freenet AGFreenet AG Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Freenet AG Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Freenet AG's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Freenet AG's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.17 and 18.72, respectively. We have considered Freenet AG's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
17.93
17.95
Expected Value
18.72
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Freenet AG pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Freenet AG pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.457
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0485
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0028
SAESum of the absolute errors2.9565
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of freenet AG. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Freenet AG. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Freenet AG

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as freenet AG. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
17.1517.9318.71
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
15.6016.3819.72
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
16.2816.7817.28
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Freenet AG. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Freenet AG's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Freenet AG's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in freenet AG.

Other Forecasting Options for Freenet AG

For every potential investor in Freenet, whether a beginner or expert, Freenet AG's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Freenet Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Freenet. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Freenet AG's price trends.

Freenet AG Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Freenet AG pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Freenet AG could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Freenet AG by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

freenet AG Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Freenet AG's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Freenet AG's current price.

Freenet AG Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Freenet AG pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Freenet AG shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Freenet AG pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify freenet AG entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Freenet AG Risk Indicators

The analysis of Freenet AG's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Freenet AG's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting freenet pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for Freenet Pink Sheet Analysis

When running Freenet AG's price analysis, check to measure Freenet AG's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Freenet AG is operating at the current time. Most of Freenet AG's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Freenet AG's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Freenet AG's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Freenet AG to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.