GuocoLand Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| FS8 Stock | EUR 1.88 0.02 1.08% |
GuocoLand Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time The relative strength index (RSI) of GuocoLand's share price is above 80 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly overbought by investors. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 96
Buy Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.207 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.22) |
Using GuocoLand hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of GuocoLand Limited from the perspective of GuocoLand response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of GuocoLand Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 1.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.56. GuocoLand after-hype prediction price | EUR 0.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
GuocoLand |
GuocoLand Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine GuocoLand price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for GuocoLand using various technical indicators. When you analyze GuocoLand charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
GuocoLand Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of GuocoLand Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 1.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0004, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.56.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict GuocoLand Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that GuocoLand's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
GuocoLand Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest GuocoLand | GuocoLand Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
GuocoLand Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting GuocoLand's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. GuocoLand's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.69 and 3.07, respectively. We have considered GuocoLand's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of GuocoLand stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent GuocoLand stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 108.5286 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.009 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0093 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0057 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.56 |
Predictive Modules for GuocoLand
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GuocoLand Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.GuocoLand After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of GuocoLand at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in GuocoLand or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of GuocoLand, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
GuocoLand Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting GuocoLand's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on GuocoLand's historical news coverage. GuocoLand's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.00 and 1.19, respectively. We have considered GuocoLand's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
GuocoLand is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of GuocoLand Limited is based on 3 months time horizon.
GuocoLand Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as GuocoLand is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading GuocoLand backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with GuocoLand, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.58 | 1.19 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 6 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
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GuocoLand Hype Timeline
GuocoLand Limited is currently traded for 1.88on Munich Exchange of Germany. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.38. GuocoLand is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.58%. %. The volatility of related hype on GuocoLand is about 181.09%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.26. About 82.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.5. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. GuocoLand Limited last dividend was issued on the 4th of November 2025. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of GuocoLand to cross-verify your projections.GuocoLand Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to GuocoLand's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict GuocoLand's future price movements. Getting to know how GuocoLand's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how GuocoLand may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| WIG1 | Sporttotal AG | 0.00 | 2 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| OYC | DELTA AIR LINES | 3.38 | 8 per month | 1.71 | 0.10 | 4.29 | (3.51) | 12.79 | |
| GZ3 | Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure | 0.00 | 3 per month | 1.44 | 0.01 | 4.26 | (2.13) | 11.89 | |
| 9M5 | MYFAIR GOLD P | 0.00 | 4 per month | 3.97 | 0.09 | 8.87 | (7.10) | 24.24 | |
| AFR0 | AIR FRANCE KLM INH | 1.17 | 2 per month | 1.99 | 0.15 | 5.71 | (4.67) | 15.05 | |
| 52SA | SYSTEMAIR AB | 0.05 | 4 per month | 1.23 | 0.04 | 2.65 | (2.33) | 19.56 | |
| CN6 | BII Railway Transportation | 0.00 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 1.64 | (1.59) | 6.43 |
Other Forecasting Options for GuocoLand
For every potential investor in GuocoLand, whether a beginner or expert, GuocoLand's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. GuocoLand Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in GuocoLand. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying GuocoLand's price trends.GuocoLand Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with GuocoLand stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of GuocoLand could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing GuocoLand by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
GuocoLand Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how GuocoLand stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading GuocoLand shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying GuocoLand stock market strength indicators, traders can identify GuocoLand Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1.88 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1.88 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.02 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 96.91 |
GuocoLand Risk Indicators
The analysis of GuocoLand's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in GuocoLand's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting guocoland stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.774 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.14 | |||
| Variance | 1.3 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for GuocoLand
The number of cover stories for GuocoLand depends on current market conditions and GuocoLand's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that GuocoLand is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about GuocoLand's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for GuocoLand Stock Analysis
When running GuocoLand's price analysis, check to measure GuocoLand's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy GuocoLand is operating at the current time. Most of GuocoLand's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of GuocoLand's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move GuocoLand's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of GuocoLand to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.