Federal Signal Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| FSG Stock | EUR 90.50 2.50 2.69% |
Federal Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Federal Signal's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 10th of February 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of Federal Signal's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.276 | Wall Street Target Price 46.83 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.17 |
Using Federal Signal hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Federal Signal from the perspective of Federal Signal response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Federal Signal on the next trading day is expected to be 90.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.61 and the sum of the absolute errors of 153.78. Federal Signal after-hype prediction price | EUR 90.01 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Federal |
Federal Signal Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Federal price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Federal using various technical indicators. When you analyze Federal charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Federal Signal Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 11th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Federal Signal on the next trading day is expected to be 90.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.61, mean absolute percentage error of 11.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 153.78.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Federal Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Federal Signal's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Federal Signal Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Federal Signal | Federal Signal Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Federal Signal Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Federal Signal's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Federal Signal's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 86.64 and 94.36, respectively. We have considered Federal Signal's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Federal Signal stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Federal Signal stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.8347 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0393 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.6064 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0289 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 153.78 |
Predictive Modules for Federal Signal
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Federal Signal. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Federal Signal After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Federal Signal at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Federal Signal or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Federal Signal, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Federal Signal Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Federal Signal's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Federal Signal's historical news coverage. Federal Signal's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 86.15 and 93.87, respectively. We have considered Federal Signal's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Federal Signal is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Federal Signal is based on 3 months time horizon.
Federal Signal Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Federal Signal is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Federal Signal backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Federal Signal, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.07 | 3.86 | 0.49 | 0.07 | 8 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
90.50 | 90.01 | 0.54 |
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Federal Signal Hype Timeline
Federal Signal is currently traded for 90.50on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.49, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.07. Federal is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 90.01. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 55.14%. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -0.54%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.07%. The volatility of related hype on Federal Signal is about 368.12%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 90.57. About 97.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.27. Federal Signal last dividend was issued on the 14th of November 2025. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Federal Signal to cross-verify your projections.Federal Signal Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Federal Signal's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Federal Signal's future price movements. Getting to know how Federal Signal's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Federal Signal may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| INR | International Consolidated Airlines | 0.14 | 7 per month | 2.70 | 0.02 | 3.04 | (2.34) | 14.13 | |
| 32A | Aegean Airlines SA | (0.22) | 2 per month | 1.38 | 0.05 | 3.03 | (2.37) | 7.82 | |
| LFL0 | LATAM Airlines Group | 1.60 | 6 per month | 2.05 | 0.18 | 4.21 | (4.39) | 12.46 | |
| NUF | Nufarm Limited | (0.01) | 6 per month | 2.33 | 0.01 | 4.17 | (4.55) | 20.04 | |
| UAO | Sterling Construction | 5.80 | 7 per month | 5.37 | 0.01 | 6.41 | (8.37) | 19.81 | |
| AY5 | Australian Agricultural | 0.00 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.90 | (2.53) | 10.13 | |
| AY5 | AUST AGRICULTURAL | 0.03 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.85 | (2.47) | 8.83 |
Other Forecasting Options for Federal Signal
For every potential investor in Federal, whether a beginner or expert, Federal Signal's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Federal Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Federal. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Federal Signal's price trends.Federal Signal Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Federal Signal stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Federal Signal could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Federal Signal by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Federal Signal Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Federal Signal stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Federal Signal shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Federal Signal stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Federal Signal entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Federal Signal Risk Indicators
The analysis of Federal Signal's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Federal Signal's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting federal stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.9 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.94 | |||
| Variance | 15.55 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Federal Signal
The number of cover stories for Federal Signal depends on current market conditions and Federal Signal's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Federal Signal is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Federal Signal's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Federal Signal to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Federal Stock please use our How to Invest in Federal Signal guide.You can also try the Top Crypto Exchanges module to search and analyze digital assets across top global cryptocurrency exchanges.