Environment And Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

FSLEX Fund  USD 48.88  0.43  0.89%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Environment And Alternative on the next trading day is expected to be 49.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.47. Environment Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Environment And's share price is at 54. This usually indicates that the mutual fund is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Environment And, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 54

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Environment And's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Environment And Alternative, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Environment And hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Environment And Alternative from the perspective of Environment And response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Environment And Alternative on the next trading day is expected to be 49.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.47.

Environment And after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 48.88  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Environment And to cross-verify your projections.

Environment And Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Environment price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Environment using various technical indicators. When you analyze Environment charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Environment And is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Environment And Alternative value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Environment And Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Environment And Alternative on the next trading day is expected to be 49.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41, mean absolute percentage error of 0.28, and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.47.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Environment Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Environment And's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Environment And Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Environment AndEnvironment And Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Environment And Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Environment And's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Environment And's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 48.81 and 50.73, respectively. We have considered Environment And's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
48.88
49.77
Expected Value
50.73
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Environment And mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Environment And mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.6694
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4108
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0087
SAESum of the absolute errors25.4723
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Environment And Alternative. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Environment And. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Environment And

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Environment And Alte. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Environment And's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
47.9248.8849.84
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
47.3948.3549.31
Details

Environment And After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Environment And at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Environment And or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Environment And, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Environment And Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Environment And's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Environment And's historical news coverage. Environment And's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 47.92 and 49.84, respectively. We have considered Environment And's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
48.88
48.88
After-hype Price
49.84
Upside
Environment And is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Environment And Alte is based on 3 months time horizon.

Environment And Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Environment And is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Environment And backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Environment And, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.02 
0.96
 0.00  
  0.20 
0 Events / Month
2 Events / Month
In a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
48.88
48.88
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Environment And Hype Timeline

Environment And Alte is currently traded for 48.88. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.2. Environment is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on Environment And is about 9.63%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 49.08. The company last dividend was issued on the 8th of April 2020. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Environment And to cross-verify your projections.

Environment And Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Environment And's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Environment And's future price movements. Getting to know how Environment And's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Environment And may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
GOLDXGabelli Gold Fund(2.28)3 per month 1.98  0.17  4.66 (3.83) 9.90 
GLDIXGabelli Gold Fund(0.25)1 per month 1.99  0.17  4.63 (3.83) 9.89 
MVALXMeridian Trarian Fund(17.41)4 per month 0.84  0.13  1.86 (1.90) 16.94 
BUIBlackRock Utility Infrastructure(7.42)11 per month 0.73 (0.02) 1.87 (1.20) 5.64 
DHLTXDiamond Hill All 0.00 0 per month 0.49  0.17  2.17 (1.49) 10.21 
EMDWestern Asset Emerging 127.02 3 per month 0.51  0.04  1.32 (0.92) 3.52 
AAIPXAmerican Beacon International 0.00 0 per month 0.42  0.06  1.43 (1.00) 3.41 
AIEAXAmerican Beacon International 0.04 2 per month 0.44  0.03  1.39 (1.07) 3.43 
AAISXAmerican Beacon International 0.00 0 per month 0.41  0.06  1.42 (1.06) 3.41 
AILCXAmerican Beacon International 0.02 1 per month 0.42  0.06  1.40 (1.06) 3.43 

Other Forecasting Options for Environment And

For every potential investor in Environment, whether a beginner or expert, Environment And's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Environment Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Environment. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Environment And's price trends.

Environment And Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Environment And mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Environment And could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Environment And by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Environment And Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Environment And mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Environment And shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Environment And mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Environment And Alternative entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Environment And Risk Indicators

The analysis of Environment And's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Environment And's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting environment mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Environment And

The number of cover stories for Environment And depends on current market conditions and Environment And's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Environment And is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Environment And's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Information on Investing in Environment Mutual Fund

Environment And financial ratios help investors to determine whether Environment Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Environment with respect to the benefits of owning Environment And security.
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