Medical Equipment Mutual Fund Forecast - Polynomial Regression

FSMEX Fund  USD 61.56  0.29  0.47%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Medical Equipment And on the next trading day is expected to be 61.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.67 and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.82. Medical Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Medical Equipment's share price is at 57. This usually indicates that the mutual fund is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Medical Equipment, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 57

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Medical Equipment's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Medical Equipment And, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Medical Equipment hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Medical Equipment And from the perspective of Medical Equipment response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Medical Equipment And on the next trading day is expected to be 61.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.67 and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.82.

Medical Equipment after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 61.56  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Medical Equipment to cross-verify your projections.

Medical Equipment Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Medical price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Medical using various technical indicators. When you analyze Medical charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Medical Equipment polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Medical Equipment And as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Medical Equipment Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Medical Equipment And on the next trading day is expected to be 61.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.67, mean absolute percentage error of 0.79, and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.82.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Medical Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Medical Equipment's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Medical Equipment Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Medical EquipmentMedical Equipment Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Medical Equipment Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Medical Equipment's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Medical Equipment's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 60.77 and 62.92, respectively. We have considered Medical Equipment's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
61.56
61.85
Expected Value
62.92
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Medical Equipment mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Medical Equipment mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.7114
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.6745
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0115
SAESum of the absolute errors41.816
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Medical Equipment historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Medical Equipment

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Medical Equipment And. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Medical Equipment's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
60.4961.5662.63
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
59.9060.9762.04
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
59.1361.0763.00
Details

Medical Equipment After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Medical Equipment at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Medical Equipment or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Medical Equipment, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Medical Equipment Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Medical Equipment's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Medical Equipment's historical news coverage. Medical Equipment's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 60.49 and 62.63, respectively. We have considered Medical Equipment's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
61.56
61.56
After-hype Price
62.63
Upside
Medical Equipment is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Medical Equipment And is based on 3 months time horizon.

Medical Equipment Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Medical Equipment is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Medical Equipment backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Medical Equipment, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.13 
1.08
  0.32 
 0.00  
1 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Very soon
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
61.56
61.56
0.00 
43.90  
Notes

Medical Equipment Hype Timeline

Medical Equipment And is currently traded for 61.56. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.32, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Medical is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 43.9%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.13%. %. The volatility of related hype on Medical Equipment is about 5684.21%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 61.56. The company last dividend was issued on the 8th of April 2020. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be very soon.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Medical Equipment to cross-verify your projections.

Medical Equipment Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Medical Equipment's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Medical Equipment's future price movements. Getting to know how Medical Equipment's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Medical Equipment may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
MISAXVictory Trivalent International 0.05 2 per month 0.50  0.07  1.15 (1.28) 3.06 
DFSPXDfa Intl Sustainability 0.00 0 per month 0.55  0.02  1.17 (1.29) 3.14 
SWLGXSchwab Large Cap Growth 0.00 0 per month 1.08 (0.10) 1.35 (1.84) 4.77 
CRANXCommunity Reinvestment Act 0.00 0 per month 0.07 (0.66) 0.21 (0.21) 0.52 
DEMSXEmerging Markets Small(0.08)3 per month 0.45 (0.05) 1.00 (1.00) 2.31 
BXMYXBlackstone Alternative Multi Strategy 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.30) 0.37 (0.28) 0.75 
DUSLXDfa Large 0.00 0 per month 0.73 (0.16) 0.97 (1.03) 3.19 
BEXFXBaron Emerging Markets(0.16)1 per month 0.71 (0.03) 1.41 (1.10) 3.96 
BEXIXBaron Emerging Markets 0.00 0 per month 0.71 (0.03) 1.40 (1.12) 3.94 
TSWIXTransamerica International Equity 0.00 0 per month 0.42  0.11  1.42 (1.15) 5.33 

Other Forecasting Options for Medical Equipment

For every potential investor in Medical, whether a beginner or expert, Medical Equipment's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Medical Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Medical. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Medical Equipment's price trends.

Medical Equipment Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Medical Equipment mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Medical Equipment could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Medical Equipment by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Medical Equipment Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Medical Equipment mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Medical Equipment shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Medical Equipment mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Medical Equipment And entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Medical Equipment Risk Indicators

The analysis of Medical Equipment's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Medical Equipment's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting medical mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Medical Equipment

The number of cover stories for Medical Equipment depends on current market conditions and Medical Equipment's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Medical Equipment is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Medical Equipment's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Other Information on Investing in Medical Mutual Fund

Medical Equipment financial ratios help investors to determine whether Medical Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Medical with respect to the benefits of owning Medical Equipment security.
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