First America Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction

FSTJ Stock  USD 0.51  0.00  0.00%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of First America Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 0.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0. First Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of First America's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the pink sheet is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of First America's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with First America Resources, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using First America hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of First America Resources from the perspective of First America response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of First America Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 0.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.

First America after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 0.51  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First America to cross-verify your projections.

First America Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine First price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First using various technical indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for First America is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of First America Resources value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

First America Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of First America Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 0.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First America's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

First America Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Backtest First AmericaFirst America Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

First America Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting First America's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. First America's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 13.61, respectively. We have considered First America's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0.51
0.51
Expected Value
13.61
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First America pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First America pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria49.4553
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0
SAESum of the absolute errors0.0
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of First America Resources. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict First America. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for First America

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First America Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First America's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.030.5113.51
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.020.4313.43
Details

Other Forecasting Options for First America

For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First America's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First America's price trends.

First America Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with First America pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of First America could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing First America by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

First America Resources Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of First America's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of First America's current price.

First America Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how First America pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading First America shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying First America pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify First America Resources entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

First America Risk Indicators

The analysis of First America's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in First America's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting first pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in First Pink Sheet

First America financial ratios help investors to determine whether First Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in First with respect to the benefits of owning First America security.