Fabryki Mebli Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

FTE Stock   24.20  0.20  0.83%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fabryki Mebli Forte on the next trading day is expected to be 24.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.60. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast Fabryki Mebli's stock prices and determine the direction of Fabryki Mebli Forte's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Fabryki Mebli's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check out Investing Opportunities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in housing.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Fabryki Mebli works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Fabryki Mebli Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fabryki Mebli Forte on the next trading day is expected to be 24.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35, mean absolute percentage error of 0.22, and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.60.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fabryki Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fabryki Mebli's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Fabryki Mebli Stock Forecast Pattern

Fabryki Mebli Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Fabryki Mebli's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fabryki Mebli's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 22.27 and 26.26, respectively. We have considered Fabryki Mebli's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
24.20
24.27
Expected Value
26.26
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fabryki Mebli stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fabryki Mebli stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.063
MADMean absolute deviation0.3491
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0161
SAESum of the absolute errors20.5997
When Fabryki Mebli Forte prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Fabryki Mebli Forte trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Fabryki Mebli observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Fabryki Mebli

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fabryki Mebli Forte. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fabryki Mebli's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.

Other Forecasting Options for Fabryki Mebli

For every potential investor in Fabryki, whether a beginner or expert, Fabryki Mebli's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fabryki Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fabryki. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fabryki Mebli's price trends.

Fabryki Mebli Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fabryki Mebli stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fabryki Mebli could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fabryki Mebli by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Fabryki Mebli Forte Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Fabryki Mebli's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Fabryki Mebli's current price.

Fabryki Mebli Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fabryki Mebli stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fabryki Mebli shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fabryki Mebli stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Fabryki Mebli Forte entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Fabryki Mebli Risk Indicators

The analysis of Fabryki Mebli's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fabryki Mebli's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fabryki stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Fabryki Mebli

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Fabryki Mebli position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Fabryki Mebli will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Fabryki Stock

  0.71CEZ CEZ asPairCorr
  0.74DNP Dino Polska SAPairCorr

Moving against Fabryki Stock

  0.75PCO Pepco Group BVPairCorr
  0.74ALE Allegroeu SAPairCorr
  0.73KGH KGHM Polska MiedzPairCorr
  0.51PKN Polski Koncern NaftowyPairCorr
  0.37PEO Bank Polska KasaPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Fabryki Mebli could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Fabryki Mebli when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Fabryki Mebli - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Fabryki Mebli Forte to buy it.
The correlation of Fabryki Mebli is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Fabryki Mebli moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Fabryki Mebli Forte moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Fabryki Mebli can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Additional Tools for Fabryki Stock Analysis

When running Fabryki Mebli's price analysis, check to measure Fabryki Mebli's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Fabryki Mebli is operating at the current time. Most of Fabryki Mebli's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Fabryki Mebli's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Fabryki Mebli's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Fabryki Mebli to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.