First Trust ETF Forward View

FTGS ETF

USD 36.14 0.14 0.39%

First Trust's Naive Prediction forecast is computed from observed closing prices over the selected horizon. The accuracy statistics below distinguish a well-fitted model from one that is smoothing over meaningful price movement. The Naive Prediction model projects First Trust at 35.40 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. The Naive Prediction output reflects statistical model results and is provided for reference purposes.

A naive forecasting model for First Trust is a special case of the moving average where the smoothing period is one. The forecast for First Trust Growth on a given trading day is simply the observed closing price of the previous period. Because it uses only a single lag, this model is limited to one-period-ahead forecasts.

Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 10th of May

Over a 90-day horizon, the Naive Prediction model forecasts First Trust at 35.40 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and sum of absolute errors of 21.26 .

This represents a very tight forecast — the model closely tracks First Trust's recent price behavior. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

ETF Forecast Pattern

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First Trust Price Prediction

Research Analysis

Forecasted Value

First Trust's next-session forecast estimates practical downside and upside boundaries based on the model's historical fit. The model places downside around 34.39 and upside around 36.41 for the next session. The moderate spread reflects defined uncertainty around the forecast.

Market Value

36.14

34.39

Downside

35.40

Expected Value

36.41

Upside

Target Odds

Above Odds

Below Odds

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the Naive Prediction model's error metrics for First Trust ETF. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.

AIC	Akaike Information Criteria	116.4599
Bias	Arithmetic mean of the errors	None
MAD	Mean absolute deviation	0.3485
MAPE	Mean absolute percentage error	0.0099
SAE	Sum of the absolute errors	21.2591

The naive model produces a tight forecast range but offers no smoothing of noise or trend detection. It serves primarily as a baseline benchmark — if a more complex model cannot outperform the naive forecast, it may indicate that First Trust price movements are largely random over the selected horizon.

Other Forecasting Options for First Trust

Analyzing First Trust's price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in First Trust's chart signal overbought or oversold conditions.

First Trust Comparable Funds

These peer funds are related to First Trust and help frame its category context. Looking across similar funds helps show whether First Trust's pricing and risk profile are typical for the category. Peer comparison adds context for First Trust without forcing a company-style competitive framework onto the fund. This makes the peer set a useful category benchmark for First Trust.

Vanguard Russell 2000 Direxion NASDAQ 100 Equal Kovitz Core Equity Pacer Funds Trust iShares Consumer Staples SPDR Portfolio MSCI iShares MSCI Switzerland WisdomTree Earnings 500 Horizon Kinetics Inflation WisdomTree 9060 Balanced American Airlines Group Alcoa Corp Apple Inc Best Buy Co Citigroup

Risk & Return

Correlation

First Trust Market Strength Events

For investors tracking First Trust Growth, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of ETF behavior. When Rate of Change diverges from price direction, it often signals weakening momentum before a visible reversal in First Trust.

	Accumulation Distribution	0.0074
	Daily Balance Of Power	0.5185
	Rate Of Daily Change	1.0
	Day Median Price	36.11
	Day Typical Price	36.12
	Market Facilitation Index	0.27
	Price Action Indicator	0.095
	Period Momentum Indicator	0.14
	Relative Strength Index	55.47

First Trust Risk Indicators

Analyzing First Trust's basic risk indicators provides a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for first trust etf. Expected shortfall estimates the average loss in the worst-case tail scenarios, going beyond what standard deviation alone captures for First Trust.

	Mean Deviation	0.811
	Semi Deviation	1.0
	Standard Deviation	1.06
	Variance	1.13
	Downside Variance	1.08
	Semi Variance	1.0
	Expected Short fall	-0.85

Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

More Resources for First Trust ETF Analysis

Reviewing First Trust Growth typically starts with its underlying exposure, expense ratio, and tracking record. Fund analysis outlines performance across cost efficiency, holdings quality, and return attribution.

First Trust Risk and Volatility Profile

	Naive Prediction
	Simple Exponential Smoothing
	Double Exponential Smoothing
	Triple Exponential Smoothing
	Simple Regression
	Polynomial Regression
	Simple Moving Average
	4 Period Moving Average
	8 Period Moving Average
	20 Period Moving Average