Fulcrum Therapeutics Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| FULC Stock | USD 10.86 0.01 0.09% |
Fulcrum Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Fulcrum Therapeutics stock prices and determine the direction of Fulcrum Therapeutics's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Fulcrum Therapeutics' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of Fulcrum Therapeutics' share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Fulcrum Therapeutics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Fulcrum Therapeutics from the perspective of Fulcrum Therapeutics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fulcrum Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 10.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.54 and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.03. Fulcrum Therapeutics after-hype prediction price | USD 10.94 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fulcrum Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections. Fulcrum Therapeutics Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Fulcrum price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Fulcrum using various technical indicators. When you analyze Fulcrum charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Fulcrum Therapeutics Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 13th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fulcrum Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 10.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.54, mean absolute percentage error of 0.67, and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.03.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fulcrum Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fulcrum Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Fulcrum Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Fulcrum Therapeutics | Fulcrum Therapeutics Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Fulcrum Therapeutics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Fulcrum Therapeutics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fulcrum Therapeutics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.22 and 18.67, respectively. We have considered Fulcrum Therapeutics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fulcrum Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fulcrum Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1053 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5428 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0482 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 32.0273 |
Predictive Modules for Fulcrum Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fulcrum Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Fulcrum Therapeutics After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Fulcrum Therapeutics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Fulcrum Therapeutics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Fulcrum Therapeutics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Fulcrum Therapeutics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Fulcrum Therapeutics' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Fulcrum Therapeutics' historical news coverage. Fulcrum Therapeutics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3.21 and 18.67, respectively. We have considered Fulcrum Therapeutics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Fulcrum Therapeutics is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Fulcrum Therapeutics is based on 3 months time horizon.
Fulcrum Therapeutics Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Fulcrum Therapeutics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Fulcrum Therapeutics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Fulcrum Therapeutics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.63 | 7.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
10.86 | 10.94 | 0.74 |
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Fulcrum Therapeutics Hype Timeline
Fulcrum Therapeutics is currently traded for 10.86. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Fulcrum is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 10.94 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is insignificant. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.74%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.63%. The volatility of related hype on Fulcrum Therapeutics is about 128833.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.86. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 80 M. Net Loss for the year was (9.72 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (52.4 M). Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fulcrum Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections.Fulcrum Therapeutics Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Fulcrum Therapeutics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Fulcrum Therapeutics' future price movements. Getting to know how Fulcrum Therapeutics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Fulcrum Therapeutics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| OCGN | Ocugen Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.53 | 0.06 | 7.25 | (6.62) | 32.50 | |
| CMPX | Compass Therapeutics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.82 | 0.12 | 7.58 | (5.14) | 16.90 | |
| LXRX | Lexicon Pharmaceuticals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 8.92 | (7.65) | 38.53 | |
| OMER | Omeros | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.32 | 0.09 | 10.03 | (7.14) | 87.69 | |
| RAPT | RAPT Therapeutics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.81 | 0.15 | 7.87 | (6.78) | 64.19 | |
| NMRA | Neumora Therapeutics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.71 | 0.07 | 10.98 | (7.26) | 33.25 | |
| BCYC | Bicycle Therapeutics | (0.06) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 6.06 | (5.88) | 14.20 | |
| LCTX | Lineage Cell Therapeutics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 4.65 | (5.56) | 17.73 | |
| ADCT | ADC Therapeutics SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.44 | 0.01 | 8.49 | (7.06) | 22.84 | |
| NGNE | Neurogene | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 5.25 | (6.05) | 18.36 |
Other Forecasting Options for Fulcrum Therapeutics
For every potential investor in Fulcrum, whether a beginner or expert, Fulcrum Therapeutics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fulcrum Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fulcrum. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fulcrum Therapeutics' price trends.Fulcrum Therapeutics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fulcrum Therapeutics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fulcrum Therapeutics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fulcrum Therapeutics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Fulcrum Therapeutics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fulcrum Therapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fulcrum Therapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fulcrum Therapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Fulcrum Therapeutics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 25848.97 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.02) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 10.78 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 10.8 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.08 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.01) |
Fulcrum Therapeutics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Fulcrum Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fulcrum Therapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fulcrum stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.4 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.17 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 7.73 | |||
| Variance | 59.7 | |||
| Downside Variance | 19.74 | |||
| Semi Variance | 17.35 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (5.39) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Fulcrum Therapeutics
The number of cover stories for Fulcrum Therapeutics depends on current market conditions and Fulcrum Therapeutics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Fulcrum Therapeutics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Fulcrum Therapeutics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Fulcrum Therapeutics Short Properties
Fulcrum Therapeutics' future price predictability will typically decrease when Fulcrum Therapeutics' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Fulcrum Therapeutics often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Fulcrum Therapeutics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Fulcrum Therapeutics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 62 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 241 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fulcrum Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Fulcrum Stock refer to our How to Trade Fulcrum Stock guide.You can also try the Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Will Pharmaceuticals sector continue expanding? Could Fulcrum diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fulcrum Therapeutics. Market participants price Fulcrum higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Fulcrum Therapeutics data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
The market value of Fulcrum Therapeutics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Fulcrum that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Fulcrum Therapeutics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Fulcrum Therapeutics' true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Fulcrum Therapeutics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Fulcrum Therapeutics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fulcrum Therapeutics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fulcrum Therapeutics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Meanwhile, Fulcrum Therapeutics' quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.