Liberty Media Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| FWONK Stock | USD 85.04 0.21 0.25% |
Liberty Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Liberty Media's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Liberty Media's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Liberty Media fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of Liberty Media's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.50) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.3343 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.1936 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.8508 | Wall Street Target Price 116.8667 |
Using Liberty Media hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Liberty Media from the perspective of Liberty Media response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Liberty Media using Liberty Media's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Liberty using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Liberty Media's stock price.
Liberty Media Short Interest
An investor who is long Liberty Media may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Liberty Media and may potentially protect profits, hedge Liberty Media with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 97.7213 | Short Percent 0.0315 | Short Ratio 4.8 | Shares Short Prior Month 6.7 M | 50 Day MA 92.4251 |
Liberty Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Liberty Media on the next trading day is expected to be 85.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.93 and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.65.Liberty Media Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Liberty Media's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Liberty. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Liberty can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Liberty Media. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Liberty Media's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Liberty Media.
Liberty Media Implied Volatility | 0.4 |
Liberty Media's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Liberty Media stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Liberty Media's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Liberty Media stock will not fluctuate a lot when Liberty Media's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Liberty Media on the next trading day is expected to be 85.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.93 and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.65. Liberty Media after-hype prediction price | USD 84.69 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Liberty Media to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Liberty contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Liberty Media will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.025% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With Liberty Media trading at USD 85.04, that is roughly USD 0.0213 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Liberty Media's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Liberty Media options at the current volatility level of 0.4%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-05-15 Liberty Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Liberty Media's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Liberty Media's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Liberty Media stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Liberty Media's open interest, investors have to compare it to Liberty Media's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Liberty Media is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Liberty. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Liberty Media Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Liberty price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Liberty using various technical indicators. When you analyze Liberty charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Liberty Media Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 10th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Liberty Media on the next trading day is expected to be 85.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.93, mean absolute percentage error of 1.29, and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.65.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Liberty Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Liberty Media's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Liberty Media Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Liberty Media | Liberty Media Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Liberty Media Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Liberty Media's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Liberty Media's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 83.85 and 86.23, respectively. We have considered Liberty Media's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Liberty Media stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Liberty Media stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.531 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.2762 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9275 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.01 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 55.65 |
Predictive Modules for Liberty Media
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Liberty Media. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Liberty Media After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Liberty Media at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Liberty Media or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Liberty Media, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Liberty Media Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Liberty Media's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Liberty Media's historical news coverage. Liberty Media's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 83.50 and 85.88, respectively. We have considered Liberty Media's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Liberty Media is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Liberty Media is based on 3 months time horizon.
Liberty Media Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Liberty Media is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Liberty Media backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Liberty Media, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.29 | 1.19 | 0.35 | 0.24 | 8 Events / Month | 9 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
85.04 | 84.69 | 0.41 |
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Liberty Media Hype Timeline
Liberty Media is currently traded for 85.04. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.35, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.24. Liberty is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 84.69. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 98.35%. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -0.41%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.29%. The volatility of related hype on Liberty Media is about 143.66%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 85.28. About 96.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Liberty Media was currently reported as 31.72. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.56. Liberty Media last dividend was issued on the 20th of July 2023. The entity had 1017:1000 split on the 20th of July 2023. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Liberty Media to cross-verify your projections.Liberty Media Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Liberty Media's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Liberty Media's future price movements. Getting to know how Liberty Media's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Liberty Media may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BATRA | Atlanta Braves Holdings | (0.01) | 8 per month | 0.89 | (0.1) | 1.08 | (1.56) | 3.94 | |
| NWS | News Corp B | 0.02 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 1.60 | (2.60) | 12.96 | |
| NWSA | News Corp A | (0.17) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 1.60 | (2.18) | 13.11 | |
| BATRK | Atlanta Braves Holdings | 1.09 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 1.52 | (1.70) | 3.93 | |
| MSGS | Madison Square Garden | 7.04 | 10 per month | 0.99 | 0.20 | 3.12 | (1.43) | 9.71 | |
| FWONA | Liberty Media | (0.36) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 1.66 | (1.93) | 5.81 | |
| BATRB | The Liberty Braves | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 1.79 | (0.88) | 10.29 | |
| SPHR | Sphere Entertainment Co | 2.06 | 9 per month | 1.45 | 0.18 | 5.43 | (2.93) | 9.49 | |
| MCS | Marcus | (0.02) | 7 per month | 1.52 | 0.02 | 3.48 | (2.82) | 8.66 | |
| WMG | Warner Music Group | (0.01) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.77 | (2.66) | 10.13 | |
| FOX | Fox Corp Class | (0.20) | 8 per month | 1.34 | (0.05) | 1.68 | (2.42) | 6.50 | |
| FOXA | Fox Corp Class | 0.50 | 11 per month | 1.44 | (0.04) | 2.02 | (2.66) | 6.20 |
Other Forecasting Options for Liberty Media
For every potential investor in Liberty, whether a beginner or expert, Liberty Media's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Liberty Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Liberty. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Liberty Media's price trends.Liberty Media Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Liberty Media stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Liberty Media could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Liberty Media by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Liberty Media Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Liberty Media stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Liberty Media shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Liberty Media stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Liberty Media entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Liberty Media Risk Indicators
The analysis of Liberty Media's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Liberty Media's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting liberty stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9839 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.19 | |||
| Variance | 1.42 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Liberty Media
The number of cover stories for Liberty Media depends on current market conditions and Liberty Media's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Liberty Media is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Liberty Media's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Liberty Media Short Properties
Liberty Media's future price predictability will typically decrease when Liberty Media's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Liberty Media often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Liberty Media's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Liberty Media's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 240 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.6 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Liberty Media to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Liberty Stock please use our How to buy in Liberty Stock guide.You can also try the My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.
Is Movies & Entertainment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Liberty Media. Market participants price Liberty higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Liberty Media assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.50) | Earnings Share (0.56) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.191 | Return On Assets |
Understanding Liberty Media requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Liberty's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Liberty Media's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Liberty Media's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Liberty Media's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Liberty Media is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. In contrast, Liberty Media's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.