Gold Fields Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

G1FI34 Stock  BRL 43.57  0.57  1.33%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Gold Fields Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 48.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.56 and the sum of the absolute errors of 95.23. Gold Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Gold Fields stock prices and determine the direction of Gold Fields Limited's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Gold Fields' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for Gold Fields is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Gold Fields Limited value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Gold Fields Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Gold Fields Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 48.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.56, mean absolute percentage error of 3.86, and the sum of the absolute errors of 95.23.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Gold Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Gold Fields' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Gold Fields Stock Forecast Pattern

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Gold Fields Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Gold Fields' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Gold Fields' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 45.98 and 51.35, respectively. We have considered Gold Fields' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
43.57
48.67
Expected Value
51.35
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Gold Fields stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Gold Fields stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.4618
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.5611
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0354
SAESum of the absolute errors95.2294
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Gold Fields Limited. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Gold Fields. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Gold Fields

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gold Fields Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
40.8943.5746.25
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
38.1540.8347.93
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
42.0743.3544.64
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Gold Fields. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Gold Fields' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Gold Fields' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Gold Fields Limited.

Other Forecasting Options for Gold Fields

For every potential investor in Gold, whether a beginner or expert, Gold Fields' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Gold Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Gold. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Gold Fields' price trends.

Gold Fields Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Gold Fields stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Gold Fields could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Gold Fields by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Gold Fields Limited Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Gold Fields' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Gold Fields' current price.

Gold Fields Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Gold Fields stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Gold Fields shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Gold Fields stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Gold Fields Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Gold Fields Risk Indicators

The analysis of Gold Fields' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Gold Fields' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gold stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Gold Stock

Gold Fields financial ratios help investors to determine whether Gold Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Gold with respect to the benefits of owning Gold Fields security.