The Gabelli Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

GABAX Fund  USD 55.27  0.54  0.99%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of The Gabelli Asset on the next trading day is expected to be 55.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.96. The Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
The Gabelli simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for The Gabelli Asset are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Gabelli Asset prices get older.

The Gabelli Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of The Gabelli Asset on the next trading day is expected to be 55.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30, mean absolute percentage error of 0.16, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.96.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict The Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that The Gabelli's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

The Gabelli Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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The Gabelli Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting The Gabelli's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. The Gabelli's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 54.54 and 56.00, respectively. We have considered The Gabelli's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
55.27
55.27
Expected Value
56.00
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of The Gabelli mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent The Gabelli mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.4249
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.038
MADMean absolute deviation0.2993
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0056
SAESum of the absolute errors17.96
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting The Gabelli Asset forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent The Gabelli observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for The Gabelli

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gabelli Asset. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
54.5455.2756.00
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
54.0054.7355.46
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
53.6554.6755.70
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as The Gabelli. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against The Gabelli's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, The Gabelli's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Gabelli Asset.

Other Forecasting Options for The Gabelli

For every potential investor in The, whether a beginner or expert, The Gabelli's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. The Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in The. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying The Gabelli's price trends.

The Gabelli Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with The Gabelli mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of The Gabelli could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing The Gabelli by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Gabelli Asset Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of The Gabelli's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of The Gabelli's current price.

The Gabelli Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how The Gabelli mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading The Gabelli shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying The Gabelli mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify The Gabelli Asset entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

The Gabelli Risk Indicators

The analysis of The Gabelli's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in The Gabelli's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting the mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in The Mutual Fund

The Gabelli financial ratios help investors to determine whether The Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in The with respect to the benefits of owning The Gabelli security.
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