Gladstone Investment Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

GAINL Stock  USD 25.22  0.04  0.16%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Gladstone Investment on the next trading day is expected to be 25.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.29. Gladstone Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Gladstone Investment's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Gladstone Investment's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Gladstone Investment fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength indicator of Gladstone Investment's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Gladstone Investment's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Gladstone Investment and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Gladstone Investment's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Gladstone Investment, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Gladstone Investment's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
1.2 K
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.684
Using Gladstone Investment hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Gladstone Investment from the perspective of Gladstone Investment response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Gladstone Investment on the next trading day is expected to be 25.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.29.

Gladstone Investment after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 25.23  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Risk vs Return Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in employment.
Payables Turnover is expected to rise to 5.36 this year, although the value of Receivables Turnover will most likely fall to 6.26. . The value of Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to slide to about 29.9 M. The value of Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to slide to about 34 M.

Gladstone Investment Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Gladstone price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Gladstone using various technical indicators. When you analyze Gladstone charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

Gladstone Investment Cash Forecast

To forecast cash or other financial indicators, analysts must employ diverse statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. This approach allows them to detect underlying patterns in the Gladstone Investment's financial statements, predicting their influence on future market prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
2005-09-30
Previous Quarter
2.6 M
Current Value
210 K
Quarterly Volatility
40.9 M
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Gladstone Investment is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Gladstone Investment value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Gladstone Investment Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 19th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Gladstone Investment on the next trading day is expected to be 25.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.29.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Gladstone Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Gladstone Investment's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Gladstone Investment Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Gladstone InvestmentGladstone Investment Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Gladstone Investment stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Gladstone Investment stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.3073
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.103
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.004
SAESum of the absolute errors6.286
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Gladstone Investment. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Gladstone Investment. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Gladstone Investment

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gladstone Investment. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
24.5225.2325.94
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
24.2424.9525.66
Details

Gladstone Investment Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Gladstone Investment stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Gladstone Investment could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Gladstone Investment by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Gladstone Investment Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Gladstone Investment stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Gladstone Investment shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Gladstone Investment stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Gladstone Investment entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Gladstone Investment Risk Indicators

The analysis of Gladstone Investment's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Gladstone Investment's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gladstone stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether Gladstone Investment offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Gladstone Investment's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Gladstone Investment Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Gladstone Investment Stock:
Check out Risk vs Return Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in employment.
You can also try the Portfolio Analyzer module to portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine.
Is Specialized Finance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Gladstone Investment. If investors know Gladstone will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Gladstone Investment listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
1.2 K
Earnings Share
2.697
Revenue Per Share
1.926
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.684
Return On Assets
0.0265
The market value of Gladstone Investment is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Gladstone that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Gladstone Investment's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Gladstone Investment's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Gladstone Investment's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Gladstone Investment's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Gladstone Investment's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Gladstone Investment is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Gladstone Investment's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.