Gaumont SA Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| GAM Stock | EUR 102.00 2.00 1.92% |
Gaumont Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Gaumont SA stock prices and determine the direction of Gaumont SA's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Gaumont SA's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Gaumont SA's share price is approaching 49. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Gaumont SA, making its price go up or down. Momentum 49
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.99) | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.32) |
Using Gaumont SA hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Gaumont SA from the perspective of Gaumont SA response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Gaumont SA on the next trading day is expected to be 102.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 68.64. Gaumont SA after-hype prediction price | EUR 101.2 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Gaumont |
Gaumont SA Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Gaumont price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Gaumont using various technical indicators. When you analyze Gaumont charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Gaumont SA Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Gaumont SA on the next trading day is expected to be 102.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.14, mean absolute percentage error of 3.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 68.64.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Gaumont Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Gaumont SA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Gaumont SA Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Gaumont SA | Gaumont SA Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Gaumont SA Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Gaumont SA's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Gaumont SA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 100.32 and 103.90, respectively. We have considered Gaumont SA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Gaumont SA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Gaumont SA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.3744 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2851 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.144 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0113 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 68.6405 |
Predictive Modules for Gaumont SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gaumont SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Gaumont SA After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Gaumont SA at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Gaumont SA or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Gaumont SA, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Gaumont SA Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Gaumont SA's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Gaumont SA's historical news coverage. Gaumont SA's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 99.41 and 102.99, respectively. We have considered Gaumont SA's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Gaumont SA is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Gaumont SA is based on 3 months time horizon.
Gaumont SA Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Gaumont SA is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Gaumont SA backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Gaumont SA, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.20 | 1.79 | 0.80 | 0.00 | 1 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | Very soon |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
102.00 | 101.20 | 0.78 |
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Gaumont SA Hype Timeline
Gaumont SA is currently traded for 102.00on Euronext Paris of France. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.8, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Gaumont is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 101.2. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 44.75%. The price drop on the next news is expected to be -0.78%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.2%. The volatility of related hype on Gaumont SA is about 35800.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 102.00. About 90.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.37. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Gaumont SA recorded a loss per share of 2.46. The entity last dividend was issued on the 15th of May 2019. The firm had 8:3 split on the 29th of July 1994. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next expected press release will be very soon. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gaumont SA to cross-verify your projections.Gaumont SA Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Gaumont SA's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Gaumont SA's future price movements. Getting to know how Gaumont SA's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Gaumont SA may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DEEZR | Deezer SA | 0.02 | 1 per month | 2.06 | 0.05 | 4.46 | (3.88) | 26.27 | |
| ALECP | Europacorp | (0.01) | 1 per month | 2.42 | 0.02 | 4.76 | (4.44) | 27.25 | |
| ALREW | Reworld Media | 0.01 | 2 per month | 2.18 | 0.02 | 7.80 | (3.68) | 24.60 | |
| DKUPL | Dekuple | (0.10) | 1 per month | 1.41 | (0.01) | 2.59 | (3.10) | 9.72 | |
| ALBLD | Bilendi | (0.02) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 4.71 | (4.90) | 10.74 | |
| HCO | High Co SA | 0.02 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 1.81 | (2.55) | 7.90 | |
| LOCAL | Solocal Group SA | 0.10 | 3 per month | 1.45 | 0.17 | 5.46 | (3.02) | 14.14 | |
| MLIML | Imalliance SA | (0.05) | 2 per month | 5.55 | 0.02 | 16.00 | (12.50) | 49.00 | |
| ALKLA | Klarsen SA | 0.03 | 1 per month | 2.92 | 0.11 | 8.99 | (4.90) | 26.93 | |
| ALHOP | Hopscotch Groupe SA | 0.05 | 1 per month | 1.95 | (0.03) | 2.44 | (3.93) | 13.19 |
Other Forecasting Options for Gaumont SA
For every potential investor in Gaumont, whether a beginner or expert, Gaumont SA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Gaumont Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Gaumont. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Gaumont SA's price trends.Gaumont SA Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Gaumont SA stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Gaumont SA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Gaumont SA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Gaumont SA Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Gaumont SA stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Gaumont SA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Gaumont SA stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Gaumont SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Gaumont SA Risk Indicators
The analysis of Gaumont SA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Gaumont SA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gaumont stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.24 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9896 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.82 | |||
| Variance | 3.31 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.57 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.9794 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.34) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Gaumont SA
The number of cover stories for Gaumont SA depends on current market conditions and Gaumont SA's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Gaumont SA is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Gaumont SA's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Gaumont SA Short Properties
Gaumont SA's future price predictability will typically decrease when Gaumont SA's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Gaumont SA often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Gaumont SA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Gaumont SA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 88.4 M |
Other Information on Investing in Gaumont Stock
Gaumont SA financial ratios help investors to determine whether Gaumont Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Gaumont with respect to the benefits of owning Gaumont SA security.