Gannett Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

Gannett Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Gannett price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Gannett using various technical indicators. When you analyze Gannett charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur. A naive forecasting model for Gannett is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Gannett Co value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Gannett Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Gannett Co on the next trading day is expected to be 3.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46, mean absolute percentage error of 0.34, and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.92.

Gannett Stock Forecast Pattern

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Gannett Price Prediction

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Gannett stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Gannett stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Gannett Co. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Gannett. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Gannett

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gannett. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 0.09 1.71 12.54 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 0.10 1.94 12.77 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 0.40 2.53 4.65 Details

Gannett After-Hype Price Density Analysis

Gannett Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

Gannett Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Notes

Gannett Hype Timeline

On the 26th of January Gannett is traded for 2.04. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -3.46, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.14. Gannett is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 1.71. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -16.18%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -1.17%. The volatility of related hype on Gannett is about 9256.41%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.90. About 86.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Gannett was currently reported as 1.36. The company last dividend was issued on the 31st of October 2019. Gannett had 2:1 split on the October 7, 1997. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Risk vs Return Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as various price indices.

Gannett Related Hype Analysis

Gannett Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

Gannett Market Strength Events

Gannett Risk Indicators

Story Coverage note for Gannett

Gannett Short Properties

Other Consideration for investing in Gannett Stock