Gdl Closed Fund Forward View - Simple Regression

GDL Fund  USD 8.56  0.01  0.12%   
Gdl Fund outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, The relative strength index (RSI) of Gdl Closed's share price is at 57. This usually indicates that the fund is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Gdl Closed, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 57

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Gdl Closed's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Gdl Closed and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Gdl Closed's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Gdl Closed Fund, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Gdl Closed hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Gdl Closed Fund from the perspective of Gdl Closed response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Gdl Closed Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 8.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.22.

Gdl Closed after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 8.56  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gdl Closed to cross-verify your projections.

Gdl Closed Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Gdl price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Gdl using various technical indicators. When you analyze Gdl charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Gdl Closed price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Gdl Closed Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 31st of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Gdl Closed Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 8.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.22.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Gdl Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Gdl Closed's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Gdl Closed Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Gdl Closed  Gdl Closed Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Gdl Closed Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Gdl Closed's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Gdl Closed's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7.98 and 8.97, respectively. We have considered Gdl Closed's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
8.56
8.48
Expected Value
8.97
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Gdl Closed fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Gdl Closed fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.7442
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0358
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0043
SAESum of the absolute errors2.2226
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Gdl Closed Fund historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Gdl Closed

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gdl Closed Fund. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Gdl Closed's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
8.068.569.06
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
8.038.539.03
Details

Gdl Closed After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Gdl Closed at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Gdl Closed or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Fund prices, such as prices of Gdl Closed, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Gdl Closed Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Gdl Closed's fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Gdl Closed's historical news coverage. Gdl Closed's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8.06 and 9.06, respectively. We have considered Gdl Closed's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
8.56
8.56
After-hype Price
9.06
Upside
Gdl Closed is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Gdl Closed Fund is based on 3 months time horizon.

Gdl Closed Fund Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Fund such as Gdl Closed is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Gdl Closed backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Gdl Closed, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.04 
0.50
 0.00  
  0.10 
7 Events / Month
2 Events / Month
In about 7 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
8.56
8.56
0.00 
5,000  
Notes

Gdl Closed Hype Timeline

On the 30th of January Gdl Closed Fund is traded for 8.56. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.1. Gdl is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.04%. %. The volatility of related hype on Gdl Closed is about 19.37%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.66. About 43.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company last dividend was issued on the 15th of September 2022. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gdl Closed to cross-verify your projections.

Gdl Closed Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Gdl Closed's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Gdl Closed's future price movements. Getting to know how Gdl Closed's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Gdl Closed may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
USBNXPear Tree Polaris(10.37)1 per month 0.00  0.15  2.19 (1.07) 15.62 
VGIVirtus Global Multi(0.05)3 per month 0.38 (0.02) 0.66 (0.76) 2.22 
CEECentral Europe Russia(2.16)2 per month 0.92  0.20  3.27 (1.67) 6.37 
LVAGXLsv Global Value 0.02 1 per month 0.38  0.19  1.54 (1.27) 5.26 
CHASXChase Growth Fund(0.01)1 per month 1.04  0.11  1.95 (1.70) 12.57 
WMBLXWesmark Balanced Fund 2.85 8 per month 0.00  0.12  0.71 (0.56) 6.87 
VILLXVillere Balanced Fund(4.31)3 per month 0.37 (0.01) 1.00 (0.69) 1.99 
PGPPimco Global Stocksplus(0.06)1 per month 0.56  0.12  1.44 (0.84) 3.94 
RBCGXReynolds Blue Chip 0.00 0 per month 0.73  0.07  1.46 (1.73) 21.46 
IHDVoya Emerging Markets 39.90 1 per month 0.48  0.14  1.61 (1.13) 3.22 

Other Forecasting Options for Gdl Closed

For every potential investor in Gdl, whether a beginner or expert, Gdl Closed's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Gdl Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Gdl. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Gdl Closed's price trends.

Gdl Closed Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Gdl Closed fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Gdl Closed could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Gdl Closed by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Gdl Closed Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Gdl Closed fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Gdl Closed shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Gdl Closed fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Gdl Closed Fund entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Gdl Closed Risk Indicators

The analysis of Gdl Closed's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Gdl Closed's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gdl fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Gdl Closed

The number of cover stories for Gdl Closed depends on current market conditions and Gdl Closed's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Gdl Closed is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Gdl Closed's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Other Information on Investing in Gdl Fund

Gdl Closed financial ratios help investors to determine whether Gdl Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Gdl with respect to the benefits of owning Gdl Closed security.
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