PT Gudang Pink Sheet Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| GDNGY Stock | USD 4.08 0.28 7.37% |
GDNGY Pink Sheet outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of PT Gudang's share price is at 55. This usually indicates that the pink sheet is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling PT Gudang, making its price go up or down. Momentum 55
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using PT Gudang hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of PT Gudang Garam from the perspective of PT Gudang response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of PT Gudang Garam on the next trading day is expected to be 3.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.35. PT Gudang after-hype prediction price | USD 3.8 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
GDNGY |
PT Gudang Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine GDNGY price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for GDNGY using various technical indicators. When you analyze GDNGY charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
PT Gudang Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 4th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of PT Gudang Garam on the next trading day is expected to be 3.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.35.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict GDNGY Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PT Gudang's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
PT Gudang Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest PT Gudang | PT Gudang Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
PT Gudang Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting PT Gudang's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. PT Gudang's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.85 and 6.60, respectively. We have considered PT Gudang's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PT Gudang pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PT Gudang pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.8486 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1024 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0285 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.3477 |
Predictive Modules for PT Gudang
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PT Gudang Garam. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.PT Gudang After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of PT Gudang at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in PT Gudang or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of PT Gudang, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
PT Gudang Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting PT Gudang's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on PT Gudang's historical news coverage. PT Gudang's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.10 and 6.50, respectively. We have considered PT Gudang's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
PT Gudang is relatively risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of PT Gudang Garam is based on 3 months time horizon.
PT Gudang Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as PT Gudang is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading PT Gudang backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with PT Gudang, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.20 | 2.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
4.08 | 3.80 | 0.00 |
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PT Gudang Hype Timeline
PT Gudang Garam is currently traded for 4.08. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. GDNGY is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.2%. %. The volatility of related hype on PT Gudang is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.08. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.63. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. PT Gudang Garam last dividend was issued on the 14th of July 2022. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of PT Gudang to cross-verify your projections.PT Gudang Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to PT Gudang's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict PT Gudang's future price movements. Getting to know how PT Gudang's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how PT Gudang may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GPAGF | Gruma SAB de | 0.00 | 2 per month | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 25.58 | |
| CFEIY | China Feihe Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 13.68 | |
| KCDMY | Kimberly Clark de Mexico | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.28 | 0.17 | 3.59 | (2.55) | 10.85 | |
| NFPDF | Nissin Foods Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1.17 | 0.00 | 13.86 | |
| KCDMF | Kimberly Clark de Mxico | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.45 | 0.12 | 5.96 | (3.86) | 15.96 | |
| UNLRY | Unilever Indonesia Tbk | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.58 | (1.83) | 28.60 |
Other Forecasting Options for PT Gudang
For every potential investor in GDNGY, whether a beginner or expert, PT Gudang's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. GDNGY Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in GDNGY. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying PT Gudang's price trends.PT Gudang Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with PT Gudang pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of PT Gudang could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing PT Gudang by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
PT Gudang Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how PT Gudang pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading PT Gudang shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying PT Gudang pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify PT Gudang Garam entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.07 | |||
| Day Median Price | 4.08 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 4.08 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.14 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.28 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 55.57 |
PT Gudang Risk Indicators
The analysis of PT Gudang's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in PT Gudang's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gdngy pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.31 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.01 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.17 | |||
| Variance | 10.06 | |||
| Downside Variance | 18.89 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.05 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.39) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for PT Gudang
The number of cover stories for PT Gudang depends on current market conditions and PT Gudang's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that PT Gudang is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about PT Gudang's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for GDNGY Pink Sheet Analysis
When running PT Gudang's price analysis, check to measure PT Gudang's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy PT Gudang is operating at the current time. Most of PT Gudang's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of PT Gudang's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move PT Gudang's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of PT Gudang to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.