MicroSectors Gold ETF Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| GDXU ETF | USD 191.09 36.40 23.53% |
Simple Exponential Smoothing is applied to MicroSectors Gold Miners's daily closing prices, and the resulting forecast is presented with accuracy metrics. Wide deviation between fitted and observed values suggests the model's assumptions may not match current market conditions. The Simple Exponential Smoothing model projects MicroSectors Gold at 191.09 for the next trading day, at the most recent closing price. This Simple Exponential Smoothing output is provided as analytical reference and does not constitute a trading recommendation.
Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 7th of May
Over a 90-day horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing model forecasts MicroSectors Gold at 191.09 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 20.72 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.08 , and sum of absolute errors of 1,243 .This indicates moderate forecast accuracy — the model captures the general trend but not all short-term variation in MicroSectors Gold's price. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
ETF Forecast Pattern
| Backtest MicroSectors Gold | MicroSectors Gold Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
MicroSectors Gold's next-session forecast estimates practical downside and upside boundaries based on the model's historical fit. The forecast band spans 180.98 to 201.20. The wide range indicates elevated uncertainty in short-term projections.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the Simple Exponential Smoothing model's error metrics for MicroSectors Gold ETF. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.0279 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 2.7075 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 20.7158 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0833 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1242.95 |
Other Forecasting Options for MicroSectors Gold
MicroSectors Gold's daily price returns decompose into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in MicroSectors often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration.MicroSectors Gold Related Equities
The stocks listed below are peers of MicroSectors Gold within the Trading--Leveraged Commodities space and offer context for ranking and strength. Peer review on balance sheet metrics shows how MicroSectors Gold's capital structure stacks up against similar firms. When MicroSectors Gold breaks from its peer group on a key metric, it often signals a firm-level change worth exploring.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MicroSectors Gold Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for MicroSectors Gold ETF provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. A rising Accumulation/Distribution line alongside rising price confirms institutional buying interest in MicroSectors Gold.
| Accumulation Distribution | 174078.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 2.393162 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.24 | |||
| Day Median Price | 188.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 189.03 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 21.3 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 36.4 |
MicroSectors Gold Risk Indicators
Assessing MicroSectors Gold's risk indicators is a structured way to evaluate the risk-return trade-off for microsectors etf. The level of risk embedded in MicroSectors Gold's feeds directly into exposure calibration.
| Mean Deviation | 7.79 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 10.11 | |||
| Variance | 102.23 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.