Greif Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| GEF-B Stock | USD 83.51 0.33 0.40% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Greif Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 83.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.95 and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.08. Greif Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Greif stock prices and determine the direction of Greif Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Greif's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The value of RSI of Greif's share price is above 70 at the present time. This usually indicates that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Greif, making its price go up or down. Momentum 70
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Greif hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Greif Inc from the perspective of Greif response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Greif Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 83.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.95 and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.08. Greif after-hype prediction price | USD 83.51 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Greif to cross-verify your projections. Greif Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Greif price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Greif using various technical indicators. When you analyze Greif charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Greif Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Greif Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 83.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.95, mean absolute percentage error of 1.42, and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.08.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Greif Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Greif's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Greif Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Greif | Greif Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Greif Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Greif's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Greif's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 81.64 and 85.09, respectively. We have considered Greif's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Greif stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Greif stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.2968 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9528 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0136 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 59.0761 |
Predictive Modules for Greif
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Greif Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Greif After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Greif at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Greif or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Greif, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Greif Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Greif's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Greif's historical news coverage. Greif's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 81.79 and 85.23, respectively. We have considered Greif's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Greif is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Greif Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Greif Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Greif is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Greif backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Greif, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.54 | 1.72 | 0.77 | 0.04 | 36 Events / Month | 9 Events / Month | In about 36 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
83.51 | 83.51 | 0.00 |
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Greif Hype Timeline
Greif Inc is currently traded for 83.51. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.77, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. Greif is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 121.13%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.54%. %. The volatility of related hype on Greif is about 2606.06%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 83.55. About 79.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.1. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Greif Inc last dividend was issued on the 18th of December 2025. The entity had 2:1 split on the 12th of April 2007. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 36 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Greif to cross-verify your projections.Greif Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Greif's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Greif's future price movements. Getting to know how Greif's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Greif may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AEO | American Eagle Outfitters | (0.86) | 9 per month | 1.75 | 0.23 | 5.78 | (3.54) | 19.53 | |
| COLM | Columbia Sportswear | 0.15 | 9 per month | 1.91 | (0.03) | 3.71 | (3.26) | 10.24 | |
| YETI | YETI Holdings | (0.48) | 18 per month | 1.53 | 0.19 | 4.49 | (3.10) | 12.03 | |
| BKE | Buckle Inc | (0.05) | 10 per month | 1.40 | (0.02) | 2.73 | (2.32) | 7.91 | |
| SON | Sonoco Products | 0.39 | 3 per month | 0.98 | 0.16 | 3.18 | (2.07) | 6.16 | |
| VSCO | Victorias Secret Co | (1.10) | 10 per month | 2.02 | 0.28 | 5.93 | (4.23) | 22.23 | |
| LCII | LCI Industries | (0.60) | 4 per month | 0.00 | 0.32 | 5.33 | (1.91) | 10.42 | |
| GRBK | Green Brick Partners | 3.55 | 9 per month | 1.50 | 0.01 | 4.56 | (3.08) | 10.63 | |
| PRKS | United Parks Resorts | 0.13 | 28 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 4.60 | (5.35) | 28.36 | |
| TPH | TRI Pointe Homes | (0.47) | 10 per month | 1.44 | 0.02 | 5.16 | (2.34) | 10.81 |
Other Forecasting Options for Greif
For every potential investor in Greif, whether a beginner or expert, Greif's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Greif Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Greif. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Greif's price trends.Greif Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Greif stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Greif could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Greif by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Greif Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Greif stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Greif shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Greif stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Greif Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Greif Risk Indicators
The analysis of Greif's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Greif's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting greif stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.36 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.11 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.72 | |||
| Variance | 2.94 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.28 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.22 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.63) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Greif
The number of cover stories for Greif depends on current market conditions and Greif's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Greif is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Greif's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Greif Short Properties
Greif's future price predictability will typically decrease when Greif's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Greif Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Greif's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Greif's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 47.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 256.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Greif to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.