Gelteq Limited Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| GELS Stock | 0.97 0.04 3.96% |
Gelteq Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Gelteq Limited's share price is approaching 48. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Gelteq Limited, making its price go up or down. Momentum 48
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.594 |
Using Gelteq Limited hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Gelteq Limited Ordinary from the perspective of Gelteq Limited response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Gelteq Limited Ordinary on the next trading day is expected to be 0.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.01. Gelteq Limited after-hype prediction price | USD 0.97 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gelteq Limited to cross-verify your projections. Gelteq Limited Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Gelteq price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Gelteq using various technical indicators. When you analyze Gelteq charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Gelteq Limited Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Gelteq Limited Ordinary on the next trading day is expected to be 0.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.01.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Gelteq Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Gelteq Limited's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Gelteq Limited Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Gelteq Limited | Gelteq Limited Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Gelteq Limited Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Gelteq Limited's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Gelteq Limited's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 8.20, respectively. We have considered Gelteq Limited's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Gelteq Limited stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Gelteq Limited stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 109.3627 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0027 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.051 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0503 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.01 |
Predictive Modules for Gelteq Limited
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gelteq Limited Ordinary. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Gelteq Limited After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Gelteq Limited at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Gelteq Limited or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Gelteq Limited, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Gelteq Limited Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Gelteq Limited's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Gelteq Limited's historical news coverage. Gelteq Limited's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.05 and 8.20, respectively. We have considered Gelteq Limited's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Gelteq Limited is abnormally volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Gelteq Limited Ordinary is based on 3 months time horizon.
Gelteq Limited Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Gelteq Limited is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Gelteq Limited backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Gelteq Limited, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 7.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 19 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 19 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
0.97 | 0.97 | 0.00 |
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Gelteq Limited Hype Timeline
Gelteq Limited Ordinary is currently traded for 0.97. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Gelteq is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on Gelteq Limited is about 51642.86%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.97. About 48.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.98. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Gelteq Limited Ordinary recorded a loss per share of 0.48. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 19 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gelteq Limited to cross-verify your projections.Gelteq Limited Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Gelteq Limited's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Gelteq Limited's future price movements. Getting to know how Gelteq Limited's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Gelteq Limited may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BFRI | Biofrontera | (0.36) | 21 per month | 4.69 | (0.0003) | 6.76 | (7.59) | 30.51 | |
| IMRN | Immuron Ltd ADR | 0.25 | 20 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 5.88 | (12.72) | 36.62 | |
| COCP | Cocrystal Pharma | 0.25 | 15 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 6.67 | (6.36) | 15.98 | |
| SBFM | Sunshine Biopharma | 0.05 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 4.13 | (5.65) | 13.93 | |
| PRPH | ProPhase Labs | (0.10) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.34) | 11.11 | (22.22) | 77.27 | |
| AYTU | Aytu BioScience | (0.06) | 8 per month | 3.19 | 0.08 | 4.69 | (5.26) | 12.75 | |
| IMNN | Imunon Inc | (0.13) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 6.74 | (6.59) | 21.83 | |
| EVGN | Evogene | 0.01 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.77 | (5.22) | 21.65 | |
| BFRG | Bullfrog AI Holdings | (0.08) | 36 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 11.76 | (8.57) | 27.69 | |
| BGLC | BioNexus Gene Lab | 0.03 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.29) | 4.14 | (7.25) | 16.78 |
Other Forecasting Options for Gelteq Limited
For every potential investor in Gelteq, whether a beginner or expert, Gelteq Limited's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Gelteq Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Gelteq. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Gelteq Limited's price trends.Gelteq Limited Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Gelteq Limited stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Gelteq Limited could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Gelteq Limited by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Gelteq Limited Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Gelteq Limited stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Gelteq Limited shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Gelteq Limited stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Gelteq Limited Ordinary entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Gelteq Limited Risk Indicators
The analysis of Gelteq Limited's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Gelteq Limited's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gelteq stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.12 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 7.04 | |||
| Variance | 49.57 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Gelteq Limited
The number of cover stories for Gelteq Limited depends on current market conditions and Gelteq Limited's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Gelteq Limited is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Gelteq Limited's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
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Gelteq Limited Short Properties
Gelteq Limited's future price predictability will typically decrease when Gelteq Limited's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Gelteq Limited Ordinary often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Gelteq Limited's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Gelteq Limited's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 10 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 344.6 K |
Additional Tools for Gelteq Stock Analysis
When running Gelteq Limited's price analysis, check to measure Gelteq Limited's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Gelteq Limited is operating at the current time. Most of Gelteq Limited's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Gelteq Limited's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Gelteq Limited's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Gelteq Limited to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.