Pak Agro Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| GEMPAPL Stock | 8.25 0.25 3.13% |
Pak |
Pak Agro Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 4th of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Pak Agro Pack on the next trading day is expected to be 7.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.33, mean absolute percentage error of 0.20, and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.36.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Pak Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Pak Agro's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Pak Agro Stock Forecast Pattern
Pak Agro Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Pak Agro's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Pak Agro's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.36 and 14.58, respectively. We have considered Pak Agro's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Pak Agro stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Pak Agro stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.3263 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3284 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0421 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 20.3625 |
Predictive Modules for Pak Agro
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Pak Agro Pack. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Pak Agro. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Pak Agro's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Pak Agro's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Pak Agro Pack.Other Forecasting Options for Pak Agro
For every potential investor in Pak, whether a beginner or expert, Pak Agro's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Pak Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Pak. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Pak Agro's price trends.Pak Agro Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Pak Agro stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Pak Agro could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Pak Agro by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Pak Agro Pack Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Pak Agro's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Pak Agro's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Pak Agro Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Pak Agro stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Pak Agro shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Pak Agro stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Pak Agro Pack entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.03 | |||
| Day Median Price | 8.25 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 8.25 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.13 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.25 |
Pak Agro Risk Indicators
The analysis of Pak Agro's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Pak Agro's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pak stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.48 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 5.7 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 7.0 | |||
| Variance | 48.97 | |||
| Downside Variance | 45.09 | |||
| Semi Variance | 32.45 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (7.47) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Pak Agro
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Pak Agro position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Pak Agro will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to Pak Agro could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Pak Agro when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Pak Agro - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Pak Agro Pack to buy it.
The correlation of Pak Agro is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Pak Agro moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Pak Agro Pack moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Pak Agro can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.