Gencor Industries Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| GENC Stock | USD 16.06 0.07 0.44% |
Gencor Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Gencor Industries stock prices and determine the direction of Gencor Industries's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Gencor Industries' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Gencor Industries' stock price is about 66. This usually indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Gencor, making its price go up or down. Momentum 66
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Gencor Industries hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Gencor Industries from the perspective of Gencor Industries response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Gencor Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 15.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.56. Gencor Industries after-hype prediction price | USD 16.03 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gencor Industries to cross-verify your projections. Gencor Industries Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Gencor price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Gencor using various technical indicators. When you analyze Gencor charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Gencor Industries Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Gencor Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 15.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26, mean absolute percentage error of 0.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.56.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Gencor Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Gencor Industries' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Gencor Industries Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Gencor Industries | Gencor Industries Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Gencor Industries Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Gencor Industries' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Gencor Industries' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.29 and 18.68, respectively. We have considered Gencor Industries' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Gencor Industries stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Gencor Industries stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.205 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0617 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2593 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0186 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 15.5606 |
Predictive Modules for Gencor Industries
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gencor Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Gencor Industries After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Gencor Industries at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Gencor Industries or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Gencor Industries, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Gencor Industries Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Gencor Industries' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Gencor Industries' historical news coverage. Gencor Industries' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 13.31 and 18.75, respectively. We have considered Gencor Industries' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Gencor Industries is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Gencor Industries is based on 3 months time horizon.
Gencor Industries Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Gencor Industries is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Gencor Industries backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Gencor Industries, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.34 | 2.70 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 15 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 15 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
16.06 | 16.03 | 0.80 |
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Gencor Industries Hype Timeline
Gencor Industries is currently traded for 16.06. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Gencor is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 16.03. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.8%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.34%. The volatility of related hype on Gencor Industries is about 19285.71%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 16.06. About 17.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.99. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Gencor Industries last dividend was issued on the 29th of December 1998. The entity had 3:2 split on the 2nd of August 2016. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 15 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gencor Industries to cross-verify your projections.Gencor Industries Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Gencor Industries' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Gencor Industries' future price movements. Getting to know how Gencor Industries' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Gencor Industries may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DSX | Diana Shipping | (0.07) | 10 per month | 1.99 | 0.16 | 6.42 | (3.68) | 14.10 | |
| ALTG | Alta Equipment Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.55 | 0.12 | 5.64 | (4.75) | 15.96 | |
| FC | Franklin Covey | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 3.37 | (4.37) | 13.84 | |
| SHMD | SCHMID Group NV | (0.45) | 7 per month | 5.81 | 0.13 | 14.63 | (9.85) | 34.09 | |
| RCMT | RCM Technologies | (0.36) | 10 per month | 1.93 | (0.04) | 4.02 | (3.53) | 14.26 | |
| SHIP | Seanergy Maritime Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.50 | 0.16 | 4.65 | (2.71) | 11.87 | |
| PAMT | PAMT P | 0.61 | 6 per month | 3.69 | 0.03 | 7.44 | (6.64) | 21.69 | |
| SMHI | SEACOR Marine Holdings | 0.03 | 7 per month | 3.13 | 0.02 | 6.07 | (5.37) | 16.95 | |
| NVX | Novonix Ltd ADR | 0.16 | 6 per month | 4.72 | (0.01) | 7.92 | (6.45) | 33.61 | |
| SPCE | Virgin Galactic Holdings | (0.06) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 6.71 | (6.79) | 27.80 |
Other Forecasting Options for Gencor Industries
For every potential investor in Gencor, whether a beginner or expert, Gencor Industries' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Gencor Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Gencor. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Gencor Industries' price trends.Gencor Industries Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Gencor Industries stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Gencor Industries could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Gencor Industries by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Gencor Industries Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Gencor Industries stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Gencor Industries shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Gencor Industries stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Gencor Industries entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Gencor Industries Risk Indicators
The analysis of Gencor Industries' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Gencor Industries' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gencor stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.87 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.77 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.7 | |||
| Variance | 7.28 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.36 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.12 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.22) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Gencor Industries
The number of cover stories for Gencor Industries depends on current market conditions and Gencor Industries' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Gencor Industries is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Gencor Industries' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Gencor Industries Short Properties
Gencor Industries' future price predictability will typically decrease when Gencor Industries' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Gencor Industries often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Gencor Industries' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Gencor Industries' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 14.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 136.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gencor Industries to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Gencor Stock refer to our How to Trade Gencor Stock guide.You can also try the Stock Screener module to find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..
Will Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components sector continue expanding? Could Gencor diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Gencor Industries. Market participants price Gencor higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Gencor Industries data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Understanding Gencor Industries requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Gencor's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Gencor Industries' is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Gencor Industries' price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Gencor Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Gencor Industries is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. In contrast, Gencor Industries' trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.